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<p>The assessment of land use conflicts is essential for promoting sustainable regional development. Exacerbated by climate change, global land use conflicts require dynamic and scenario-specific predictions that remain notably underexplored. The Nanjing Metropolitan Area in China serves as a representative case in this study. An evaluation model for land use conflicts was developed from a landscape pattern perspective to examine the spatiotemporal variations in such conflicts between 2000 and 2020. The driving factors of these conflicts were analyzed using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and a geodetector model. Furthermore, to simulate the spatiotemporal evolution of land use conflicts from 2030 to 2050, this study employed the advanced Patch-Generated Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model under three distinct climate scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. The findings reveal the following: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, land use conflicts were more intense in the north and less intense in the south, with the area of extreme conflict decreasing by 11.04%, reflecting an overall alleviation. (2) The basic pattern of land use conflicts was initially shaped by natural driving factors, with precipitation and evapotranspiration showing the highest correlation coefficients of 0.498 and 0.821, respectively, exerting a significant positive impact on the spatiotemporal evolution of these conflicts. Over time, the influence of socioeconomic factors, location factors, and national policies on land use conflicts has gradually increased. (3) By 2050, under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, extreme conflict is projected to decrease to just 1.92%, with significant mitigation. In the SSP2-4.5 scenario, conflicts will remain moderate, whereas in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, moderate conflicts will increase to 38.4%, indicating worsening tensions. The intensifying impacts of climate change and human activity are expected to exacerbate future land use conflicts. This study addresses the gap in research combining land use conflicts with climate scenarios and provides recommendations for optimizing land resource allocation in regions such as the Nanjing Metropolitan Area, alleviating human–environment tensions, and promoting sustainable land use.</p>

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Assessing Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Future Projections of Land Use Conflicts in Metropolitan Areas under Climate Change

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月26日

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  • Lingjun Lu,
  • Xu Han,
  • Junjun Zhu,
  • Ligang Lv,
  • Xueyan Sui

摘要

The assessment of land use conflicts is essential for promoting sustainable regional development. Exacerbated by climate change, global land use conflicts require dynamic and scenario-specific predictions that remain notably underexplored. The Nanjing Metropolitan Area in China serves as a representative case in this study. An evaluation model for land use conflicts was developed from a landscape pattern perspective to examine the spatiotemporal variations in such conflicts between 2000 and 2020. The driving factors of these conflicts were analyzed using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and a geodetector model. Furthermore, to simulate the spatiotemporal evolution of land use conflicts from 2030 to 2050, this study employed the advanced Patch-Generated Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model under three distinct climate scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. The findings reveal the following: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, land use conflicts were more intense in the north and less intense in the south, with the area of extreme conflict decreasing by 11.04%, reflecting an overall alleviation. (2) The basic pattern of land use conflicts was initially shaped by natural driving factors, with precipitation and evapotranspiration showing the highest correlation coefficients of 0.498 and 0.821, respectively, exerting a significant positive impact on the spatiotemporal evolution of these conflicts. Over time, the influence of socioeconomic factors, location factors, and national policies on land use conflicts has gradually increased. (3) By 2050, under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, extreme conflict is projected to decrease to just 1.92%, with significant mitigation. In the SSP2-4.5 scenario, conflicts will remain moderate, whereas in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, moderate conflicts will increase to 38.4%, indicating worsening tensions. The intensifying impacts of climate change and human activity are expected to exacerbate future land use conflicts. This study addresses the gap in research combining land use conflicts with climate scenarios and provides recommendations for optimizing land resource allocation in regions such as the Nanjing Metropolitan Area, alleviating human–environment tensions, and promoting sustainable land use.