<p>To examine the mechanisms through which market-oriented environmental regulation fosters corporate green transition, this paper adopts a Dual Machine Learning approach. The analysis draws on a sample of A-share listed companies in China from 2010 to 2024, focusing specifically on the impact of carbon emissions trading on corporate green total factor productivity. The results show that: (1) carbon emissions trading significantly promotes corporate green total factor productivity, a conclusion that remains robust across a battery of tests; (2) heterogeneity analysis reveals that the policy impact is more significant for non-heavily polluting, small-scale, and non-high-tech firms; (3) mechanism analysis reveals that the carbon emissions trading mainly enhances corporate green total factor productivity by incentivizing green investment, strengthening environmental supervision, optimizing resource allocation, and improving internal controls. The study provides micro-level evidence for the Porter Hypothesis and Coase Theorem, and offers practical insights for fostering corporate green total factor productivity growth through carbon market mechanisms.</p>