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<p>This study examines the energy–growth–emissions nexus in the BRICS economies, which account for nearly 36% of global energy output and have experienced a 101% increase in CO₂ emissions since 2000. Using balanced panel data for the period 2000–2022, the study investigates the structural constraints and policy drivers shaping the renewable energy transition. The findings reveal that industrial scale generates substantial transition inertia in large economies such as China and India, where persistent coal dependence contributes to 12–18% higher annual emissions. Renewable energy is shown to have a limited short-term impact on economic growth, contributing less than 5% to GDP, due to a 3–5-year lag between investment and measurable economic returns. In contrast, fossil fuels continue to support industrial output and employment—accounting for about 8% of India’s workforce—highlighting the socio-economic trade-offs involved in rapid decarbonisation. Financial dynamics play a critical role: green foreign direct investment reduces emissions intensity by approximately 9%, while non-renewable investment increases it by 14%. Policy interventions, including China’s carbon neutrality commitment and India’s Perform, Achieve, and Trade (PAT) scheme, partially validate and refine the Environmental Kuznets Curve for BRICS nations by lowering emissions elasticity with respect to growth. Overall, the results suggest that effective decarbonisation in BRICS nations requires long-term renewable strategies, targeted green investment, and tailored policy frameworks to decouple economic growth from emissions while maintaining socio-economic stability.</p>

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Economic growth and environmental trade-offs: energy transition strategies for BRICS nations

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月13日

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  • Samir Ul Hassan

摘要

This study examines the energy–growth–emissions nexus in the BRICS economies, which account for nearly 36% of global energy output and have experienced a 101% increase in CO₂ emissions since 2000. Using balanced panel data for the period 2000–2022, the study investigates the structural constraints and policy drivers shaping the renewable energy transition. The findings reveal that industrial scale generates substantial transition inertia in large economies such as China and India, where persistent coal dependence contributes to 12–18% higher annual emissions. Renewable energy is shown to have a limited short-term impact on economic growth, contributing less than 5% to GDP, due to a 3–5-year lag between investment and measurable economic returns. In contrast, fossil fuels continue to support industrial output and employment—accounting for about 8% of India’s workforce—highlighting the socio-economic trade-offs involved in rapid decarbonisation. Financial dynamics play a critical role: green foreign direct investment reduces emissions intensity by approximately 9%, while non-renewable investment increases it by 14%. Policy interventions, including China’s carbon neutrality commitment and India’s Perform, Achieve, and Trade (PAT) scheme, partially validate and refine the Environmental Kuznets Curve for BRICS nations by lowering emissions elasticity with respect to growth. Overall, the results suggest that effective decarbonisation in BRICS nations requires long-term renewable strategies, targeted green investment, and tailored policy frameworks to decouple economic growth from emissions while maintaining socio-economic stability.