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<p>Energy and emissions projections are essential for effective climate policymaking, yet their alignment with actual developments is rarely evaluated. This study retrospectively assesses carbon dioxide emissions projections for the buildings sector in Belgium and the Netherlands between 2000 and 2020. Using a mixed-methods approach, it combines decomposition analysis with a review of policy and socio-economic contexts to compare 43 national scenarios against historical data. Emissions were decomposed into four drivers, weather, socio-economic activity, energy intensity, and emission intensity, to identify causes of deviations. Projections in both countries consistently overestimated emissions and energy use when compared to historical data, with 2020 deviations averaging + 22% for Belgium and + 15% for the Netherlands in residential buildings, and + 29% and over in the service sector. Energy intensity was the most uncertain and typically overestimated driver, which likely reflects a combination of modest efficiency improvements embedded in the policy package at the time and limitations in how scenarios represented future savings. Emission intensity trends were more accurately captured, while socio-economic and heating degree day assumptions varied in precision. Scenarios with higher policy ambition showed notably smaller deviations. All scenarios assumed uninterrupted activity growth or swift rebounds after disruptions, which contributed to the observed deviations. This comparative assessment demonstrates the value of systematic hindsight analysis to improve projection methodologies and policy design. It highlights the need for more ambitious scenarios that move beyond prevailing concerns, draw on past policy impact assessments to improve modelling of energy intensity and behavioural change, and incorporate dynamic assumptions on economic, demographic, and weather-related uncertainties.</p>

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Projections in hindsight for the building sector: understanding drivers for future policymaking

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月27日

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  • Annabel Vella,
  • Kelsey van Maris,
  • Nele Renders,
  • Tom Dauwe

摘要

Energy and emissions projections are essential for effective climate policymaking, yet their alignment with actual developments is rarely evaluated. This study retrospectively assesses carbon dioxide emissions projections for the buildings sector in Belgium and the Netherlands between 2000 and 2020. Using a mixed-methods approach, it combines decomposition analysis with a review of policy and socio-economic contexts to compare 43 national scenarios against historical data. Emissions were decomposed into four drivers, weather, socio-economic activity, energy intensity, and emission intensity, to identify causes of deviations. Projections in both countries consistently overestimated emissions and energy use when compared to historical data, with 2020 deviations averaging + 22% for Belgium and + 15% for the Netherlands in residential buildings, and + 29% and over in the service sector. Energy intensity was the most uncertain and typically overestimated driver, which likely reflects a combination of modest efficiency improvements embedded in the policy package at the time and limitations in how scenarios represented future savings. Emission intensity trends were more accurately captured, while socio-economic and heating degree day assumptions varied in precision. Scenarios with higher policy ambition showed notably smaller deviations. All scenarios assumed uninterrupted activity growth or swift rebounds after disruptions, which contributed to the observed deviations. This comparative assessment demonstrates the value of systematic hindsight analysis to improve projection methodologies and policy design. It highlights the need for more ambitious scenarios that move beyond prevailing concerns, draw on past policy impact assessments to improve modelling of energy intensity and behavioural change, and incorporate dynamic assumptions on economic, demographic, and weather-related uncertainties.