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<p>The present study has considered 12 Indian cities to find the relationship between precipitation and runoff using Lacey’s formula under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Future projected precipitation datasets are obtained as available from <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3987736">https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3987736</a>. SSP scenarios considered are SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. Eleven General Circulation Models (GCM) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are used to get future projected precipitation datasets for the period 2015–2100. Under each SSP scenario considered, Lacey’s formula is applied to obtain a relation between precipitation and runoff for each future period and for each city. Various impacting drivers of extremes of precipitation and runoff are obtained for each city for both future periods, 2015–2060 and 2061–2100. Trend determination and analysis of runoff using Mann-Kendall trend test for each city under four SSP scenarios is performed for both future periods, 2015–2060 and 2061–2100. Projected minimum precipitation (min <i>P</i>) remains close or lesser to historic value in 2015–2060 under SSPs 1 and 2, while, it increases significantly under SSPs 3 and 5. Also, increase of maximum precipitation (max <i>P</i>) is exponential in 2061–2100 especially under SSPs 3 and 5. Most of the trends of runoff are insignificant trends at 95% confidence level for all cities under all SSPS in both the periods, 2015–2060 and 2061–2100. The findings of the present study can help to find relation between precipitation and runoff under SSPs.</p>

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Key drivers of extreme precipitation and runoff and their trend for Indian cities in climatic variation under shared socioeconomic pathways

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月18日

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  • Lakshmi Raghu Nagendra Prasad Rentachintala

摘要

The present study has considered 12 Indian cities to find the relationship between precipitation and runoff using Lacey’s formula under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Future projected precipitation datasets are obtained as available from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3987736. SSP scenarios considered are SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. Eleven General Circulation Models (GCM) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are used to get future projected precipitation datasets for the period 2015–2100. Under each SSP scenario considered, Lacey’s formula is applied to obtain a relation between precipitation and runoff for each future period and for each city. Various impacting drivers of extremes of precipitation and runoff are obtained for each city for both future periods, 2015–2060 and 2061–2100. Trend determination and analysis of runoff using Mann-Kendall trend test for each city under four SSP scenarios is performed for both future periods, 2015–2060 and 2061–2100. Projected minimum precipitation (min P) remains close or lesser to historic value in 2015–2060 under SSPs 1 and 2, while, it increases significantly under SSPs 3 and 5. Also, increase of maximum precipitation (max P) is exponential in 2061–2100 especially under SSPs 3 and 5. Most of the trends of runoff are insignificant trends at 95% confidence level for all cities under all SSPS in both the periods, 2015–2060 and 2061–2100. The findings of the present study can help to find relation between precipitation and runoff under SSPs.