Abstract Henan Province, a key region for China’s agriculture and economy, has experienced significant climate changes from 1960 to 2021. After analysing data from 76 meteorological stations using Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s Slope estimator, Morlet wavelet analysis, innovative trend analysis, and innovative polygon trend analysis, it was found that: (1) Annual mean temperature in Henan Province exhibits a significant increasing trend, with a warming rate of 0.25°C per decade, and the strongest warming (0.37°C per decade) occurs in spring. Precipitation shows substantial interannual variability, with an overall increasing trend of 1.75 mm per decade, while summer extreme precipitation increases at a rate of 7.12 mm per decade. An abrupt change in temperature occurred in the mid-1990s, after which temperature variations were dominated by a 20-year cycle. Annual precipitation variability was most prominent between 1973 and 1985, accompanied by mixed periodic oscillations. (2) The province exhibits a climatic transition toward ‘warm-dry’ conditions in the central-northern regions (e.g., Zhengzhou, Kaifeng, Xinxiang, Jiaozuo) and ‘warm-wet’ conditions in the eastern regions. Increasing precipitation trends are concentrated in the east and south, driven by synergistic interactions among meteorological systems (e.g., the subtropical high), topographic effects, and urbanisation processes. (3) Innovative trend analysis (ITA) and innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA) complement traditional statistical methods, effectively identifying hidden trends that cannot be detected by conventional approaches. This study improves our understanding of climatic dynamics and extreme weather events in Henan, providing a scientific basis for the development of early warning systems and climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. Article highlights <OrderedList> <ListItem> <ItemNumber>1.</ItemNumber> <ItemContent> Temperature and precipitation in Henan Province are an upward trend in the past 62 years. </ItemContent> </ListItem> <ListItem> <ItemNumber>2.</ItemNumber> <ItemContent> The central and northern regions in Henan Province have a noteworthy warming trend. </ItemContent> </ListItem> <ListItem> <ItemNumber>3.</ItemNumber> <ItemContent> Abrupt change of annual temperature occurred in the mid-1990s and 20a main period. </ItemContent> </ListItem> <ListItem> <ItemNumber>4.</ItemNumber> <ItemContent> The variability of annual precipitation is larger and extreme events are increasing. </ItemContent> </ListItem> <ListItem> <ItemNumber>5.</ItemNumber> <ItemContent> The traditional trend analysis method and ITA method are complementary. </ItemContent> </ListItem> </OrderedList>

Spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Henan Province in recent 60 years and identification of driving factors

期刊论文
发表日期：

2026年7月22日

查看全文

Yanqi Zhao,
Zimeng Zhai,
Ying Yang,
Geng Cao,
Xingxing Bao

摘要

Abstract

Henan Province, a key region for China’s agriculture and economy, has experienced significant climate changes from 1960 to 2021. After analysing data from 76 meteorological stations using Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s Slope estimator, Morlet wavelet analysis, innovative trend analysis, and innovative polygon trend analysis, it was found that: (1) Annual mean temperature in Henan Province exhibits a significant increasing trend, with a warming rate of 0.25°C per decade, and the strongest warming (0.37°C per decade) occurs in spring. Precipitation shows substantial interannual variability, with an overall increasing trend of 1.75 mm per decade, while summer extreme precipitation increases at a rate of 7.12 mm per decade. An abrupt change in temperature occurred in the mid-1990s, after which temperature variations were dominated by a 20-year cycle. Annual precipitation variability was most prominent between 1973 and 1985, accompanied by mixed periodic oscillations. (2) The province exhibits a climatic transition toward ‘warm-dry’ conditions in the central-northern regions (e.g., Zhengzhou, Kaifeng, Xinxiang, Jiaozuo) and ‘warm-wet’ conditions in the eastern regions. Increasing precipitation trends are concentrated in the east and south, driven by synergistic interactions among meteorological systems (e.g., the subtropical high), topographic effects, and urbanisation processes. (3) Innovative trend analysis (ITA) and innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA) complement traditional statistical methods, effectively identifying hidden trends that cannot be detected by conventional approaches. This study improves our understanding of climatic dynamics and extreme weather events in Henan, providing a scientific basis for the development of early warning systems and climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Article highlights

Temperature and precipitation in Henan Province are an upward trend in the past 62 years.

The central and northern regions in Henan Province have a noteworthy warming trend.

Abrupt change of annual temperature occurred in the mid-1990s and 20a main period.

The variability of annual precipitation is larger and extreme events are increasing.

The traditional trend analysis method and ITA method are complementary.