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Abstract <p>Drought is one of the most pressing global hydrological challenges, with significant impacts on agriculture, ecosystems, and human livelihoods. Climate change and human activities have intensified its severity and frequency. In Toamasina, the vulnerability of the coastal area is amplified by climate-related risks such as cyclones, sea level rise, and marine intrusion, along with rapid urban expansion that weakens natural ecosystems and strains local infrastructure. This study evaluates drought intensity and trends in Toamasina using data from two stations over two periods: 2000–2024 and 1981–2023. The analysis is based on the standardised precipitation index (SPI) and standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), across multiple time scales. Results indicate irregular shifts between wet and dry periods; however, a clear transition toward drier conditions is evident from 2011 onward. Extreme droughts were recorded in 2012, 2013, and 2016, with another severely dry episode in 2017. These findings confirm that Toamasina, like many other coastal cities, is increasingly exposed to the compounded effects of climate change, ocean-related hazards, and unplanned urban development.</p> Research highlights <p><UnorderedList Mark="Bullet"> <ItemContent> <p>Long-term drought analysis using standardised precipitation index (SPI) and standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) indices revealed a significant shift toward drier conditions in Toamasina since 2011.</p> </ItemContent> <ItemContent> <p>Extreme drought events were detected in 2012, 2013, and 2016, with intensified impacts across meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological scales.</p> </ItemContent> <ItemContent> <p>Strong correlations between SPI and SPEI confirm that both indices effectively capture multi-scale drought dynamics, though SPEI is more sensitive to warming trends.</p> </ItemContent> <ItemContent> <p>Integration of ground-based and satellite data highlights the growing need for localised climate monitoring and improved water management in coastal Madagascar.</p> </ItemContent> </UnorderedList></p>

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Analysing droughts and high rainfall events using the standardised precipitation index and standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index in Toamasina, Madagascar

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月26日

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  • Christian Ulrich Rakotomalala,
  • Voahirana Ramaroson,
  • Joel Rajaobelison,
  • Naivo Rabesiranana,
  • Falintsoa Fanantenana Asombola Razafitsalama,
  • Wilfrid Chrysante Solofoarisina

摘要

Abstract

Drought is one of the most pressing global hydrological challenges, with significant impacts on agriculture, ecosystems, and human livelihoods. Climate change and human activities have intensified its severity and frequency. In Toamasina, the vulnerability of the coastal area is amplified by climate-related risks such as cyclones, sea level rise, and marine intrusion, along with rapid urban expansion that weakens natural ecosystems and strains local infrastructure. This study evaluates drought intensity and trends in Toamasina using data from two stations over two periods: 2000–2024 and 1981–2023. The analysis is based on the standardised precipitation index (SPI) and standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), across multiple time scales. Results indicate irregular shifts between wet and dry periods; however, a clear transition toward drier conditions is evident from 2011 onward. Extreme droughts were recorded in 2012, 2013, and 2016, with another severely dry episode in 2017. These findings confirm that Toamasina, like many other coastal cities, is increasingly exposed to the compounded effects of climate change, ocean-related hazards, and unplanned urban development.

Research highlights

Long-term drought analysis using standardised precipitation index (SPI) and standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) indices revealed a significant shift toward drier conditions in Toamasina since 2011.

Extreme drought events were detected in 2012, 2013, and 2016, with intensified impacts across meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological scales.

Strong correlations between SPI and SPEI confirm that both indices effectively capture multi-scale drought dynamics, though SPEI is more sensitive to warming trends.

Integration of ground-based and satellite data highlights the growing need for localised climate monitoring and improved water management in coastal Madagascar.