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Abstract <p>Despite its minimal contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, Africa faces substantial dangers from climate change repercussions. Using the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) TS 4.06 dataset, this study seeks to investigate climate variability in Africa over the last 120 years (1901–2021). This study also employs climate change data from the revised Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model version 2.0 (MRI-ESM2.0) under the Shared Socio-economic Pathway SSP5–8.5 high-emissions scenario to conduct a spatial and temporal analysis of precipitation, temperature, and drought across Africa. The findings reveal that annual precipitation varies spatially and temporally from region to region. Central Africa receives the highest rainfall, followed by the West, East, and South African areas, with the North receiving the least. This study provides a comprehensive continent-wide analysis based on long-term observational and model data, contributing new insights at the Pan-African scale. The findings underscore the urgent need for region-specific climate adaptation and disaster preparedness policies. Policymakers should prioritise resilient water resource management, early warning systems for floods and droughts, and adaptive agricultural practices to safeguard food security, public health, and sustainable development in vulnerable African regions.</p> Graphical abstract <p></p> Research highlights <p><UnorderedList Mark="Bullet"> <ItemContent> <p>Climate change poses a significant risk to Africa, despite its minimal contribution to greenhouse gas emissions.</p> </ItemContent> <ItemContent> <p>This study employs climate change datasets to conduct a spatial and temporal analysis of precipitation, temperature, and drought across Africa.</p> </ItemContent> <ItemContent> <p>Rainfall patterns in most of parts of Africa are anticipated to decline significantly in the far future (2061–2100).</p> </ItemContent> </UnorderedList></p>

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Climate change hotspots in Africa: spatiotemporal trends of rainfall, temperature, and drought using GIS and statistical modelling

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月23日

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  • Mohamed Saber,
  • Vithundwa Richard Posite,
  • Abdulai Osman Koroma,
  • Aliousseyni Ly,
  • Alhaji Mohamed Tejan Bah,
  • Alhassan Abdulai,
  • Assou Yves Kokouvi,
  • Boussoury Moutoiwaf,
  • Dawit Kanito,
  • Destaw Fentie Achenef,
  • Donnata Alupot,
  • Henrietta Andoh,
  • Habibou Souley Yacouba,
  • Hammed Opeyemi Rasaq,
  • Jainaba Trawally,
  • Lawrence Blay,
  • Lassina Dit Papa Kone,
  • Maryam Shu’aibu Hassan,
  • Mervis Henry Namakwa,
  • Promise Delight Udochukwu,
  • Renish Awuor Ondiek,
  • Rokaya Ragab Abdallah,
  • Kokou Romaric Posset,
  • Samerawit Chaka Gemeda,
  • Sidiki Traore,
  • Sameh A Kantoush,
  • Tetsuya Sumi,
  • Cherifa Abdelbaki,
  • Hadir Abdelmoneim,
  • Emad Habib,
  • Mohammed Abdel-Fattah,
  • Khagendra P Bharambe,
  • Vahid Nourani,
  • Yacine Abdelbaset Berrezel,
  • Farag Mewafy

摘要

Abstract

Despite its minimal contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, Africa faces substantial dangers from climate change repercussions. Using the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) TS 4.06 dataset, this study seeks to investigate climate variability in Africa over the last 120 years (1901–2021). This study also employs climate change data from the revised Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model version 2.0 (MRI-ESM2.0) under the Shared Socio-economic Pathway SSP5–8.5 high-emissions scenario to conduct a spatial and temporal analysis of precipitation, temperature, and drought across Africa. The findings reveal that annual precipitation varies spatially and temporally from region to region. Central Africa receives the highest rainfall, followed by the West, East, and South African areas, with the North receiving the least. This study provides a comprehensive continent-wide analysis based on long-term observational and model data, contributing new insights at the Pan-African scale. The findings underscore the urgent need for region-specific climate adaptation and disaster preparedness policies. Policymakers should prioritise resilient water resource management, early warning systems for floods and droughts, and adaptive agricultural practices to safeguard food security, public health, and sustainable development in vulnerable African regions.

Graphical abstract

Research highlights

Climate change poses a significant risk to Africa, despite its minimal contribution to greenhouse gas emissions.

This study employs climate change datasets to conduct a spatial and temporal analysis of precipitation, temperature, and drought across Africa.

Rainfall patterns in most of parts of Africa are anticipated to decline significantly in the far future (2061–2100).