Abstract Climate change poses a growing threat to ecosystems, economies, and communities worldwide, particularly in vulnerable tropical monsoon regions such as Kerala, India. This study evaluates climate vulnerability across fourteen districts of Kerala, India using a regionally adapted IPCC framework. Extreme weather events are the main drivers of climate vulnerability in the region; therefore, high-temperature events, dry spells, and heavy rainfall were selected as key exposure indicators due to their dominant influence on regional climatic risk. Land-use changes increase the sensitivity of an area by altering its natural resilience to climatic stress. Indicators such as per capita income, gross district domestic product, and a novel integration of ecological resilience metrics (normalized difference vegetation index) into the IPCC framework to assess adaptive capacity, as stronger economic resources and stable vegetation cover enhance the ability of communities to cope with these exposures. Results reveal strong spatial heterogeneity, with the central Kerala district, Thrissur emerged as the most vulnerable district, combining high exposure and sensitivity with moderate adaptive capacity, while northern districts like Kasaragod was the least vulnerable. The district-level assessment framework developed here is scalable to other monsoon-dependent regions and highlights the need for policies that strengthen adaptive capacity through disaster preparedness, sustainable land-use planning, and improved socioeconomic resilience. Research highlights <UnorderedList Mark="Bullet"> <ItemContent> District-level climate vulnerability in Kerala was assessed using an integrated indicator-based framework. Significant spatial heterogeneity in vulnerability was observed across the state. </ItemContent> <ItemContent> Central zone, Thrissur, shows the highest vulnerability, while Kasaragod demonstrates greater resilience. </ItemContent> <ItemContent> The integrated framework supports climate adaptation planning in monsoon-dependent regions. </ItemContent> <ItemContent> The findings highlight the need for district-specific adaptation strategies to enhance climate resilience. </ItemContent> </UnorderedList>

Assessment of district-level climate vulnerability in Kerala using an integrated IPCC framework

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发表日期：

2026年5月28日

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K R Riya,
B. Ajithkumar,
P. Lincy Davis,
Arjun Vysakh,
R Sarath

摘要

Abstract

Climate change poses a growing threat to ecosystems, economies, and communities worldwide, particularly in vulnerable tropical monsoon regions such as Kerala, India. This study evaluates climate vulnerability across fourteen districts of Kerala, India using a regionally adapted IPCC framework. Extreme weather events are the main drivers of climate vulnerability in the region; therefore, high-temperature events, dry spells, and heavy rainfall were selected as key exposure indicators due to their dominant influence on regional climatic risk. Land-use changes increase the sensitivity of an area by altering its natural resilience to climatic stress. Indicators such as per capita income, gross district domestic product, and a novel integration of ecological resilience metrics (normalized difference vegetation index) into the IPCC framework to assess adaptive capacity, as stronger economic resources and stable vegetation cover enhance the ability of communities to cope with these exposures. Results reveal strong spatial heterogeneity, with the central Kerala district, Thrissur emerged as the most vulnerable district, combining high exposure and sensitivity with moderate adaptive capacity, while northern districts like Kasaragod was the least vulnerable. The district-level assessment framework developed here is scalable to other monsoon-dependent regions and highlights the need for policies that strengthen adaptive capacity through disaster preparedness, sustainable land-use planning, and improved socioeconomic resilience.

Research highlights

District-level climate vulnerability in Kerala was assessed using an integrated indicator-based framework. Significant spatial heterogeneity in vulnerability was observed across the state.

Central zone, Thrissur, shows the highest vulnerability, while Kasaragod demonstrates greater resilience.

The integrated framework supports climate adaptation planning in monsoon-dependent regions.

The findings highlight the need for district-specific adaptation strategies to enhance climate resilience.