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Abstract <p>South Asian temperature patterns deviate significantly from global trends, particularly with regard to diurnal asymmetry between 2001 and 2023. This study examines monthly mean temperatures, seasonal extremes, and long-term variability using ERA5 high-resolution reanalysis data of agroclimatic zones in South Asia. With temperatures falling to about 270 K in January and rising to about 310 K throughout the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, there was a clear seasonal pattern. High-altitude areas in Afghanistan and Nepal were highly unpredictable, especially in the winter, whereas coastal areas and southern places like Sri Lanka remained more stable. Pre-monsoon (March-April-May, MAM), monsoon (June-July-August-September, JJAS), post-monsoon (October-November, ON), and winter (December-January-February, DJF) were the four seasonal variations that were studied. Different warming patterns were seen in high-altitude and northern regions in May, June, and September, which is consistent with elevation-dependent warming. Unexpected cooling trends were observed in certain months, particularly May and December. Water security, public health, and agriculture are all directly impacted by these spatio-temporal variations. The results highlight the need for additional study on the factors that contribute to regional climate variability, including both natural and man-made forcing factors.</p> Research highlights <p><UnorderedList Mark="Bullet"> <ItemContent> <p>Analysed monthly and seasonal surface temperature variability across 15 agro-climatic zones of South Asia using ERA5 reanalysis data (2001–2023).</p> </ItemContent> <ItemContent> <p>High-altitude regions like Afghanistan and Nepal showed stronger winter variability and rapid warming patterns.</p> </ItemContent> <ItemContent> <p>Detected localized cooling in May and December in specific zones, indicating complex climatic drivers.</p> </ItemContent> <ItemContent> <p>Findings inform regional climate adaptation, water management, and agro-environmental planning.</p> </ItemContent> </UnorderedList></p>

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Recent temperature changes in South Asia’s agro-climatic zones

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月25日

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  • Ishita Sharan Srivastava,
  • Aditya Kumar Patra

摘要

Abstract

South Asian temperature patterns deviate significantly from global trends, particularly with regard to diurnal asymmetry between 2001 and 2023. This study examines monthly mean temperatures, seasonal extremes, and long-term variability using ERA5 high-resolution reanalysis data of agroclimatic zones in South Asia. With temperatures falling to about 270 K in January and rising to about 310 K throughout the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, there was a clear seasonal pattern. High-altitude areas in Afghanistan and Nepal were highly unpredictable, especially in the winter, whereas coastal areas and southern places like Sri Lanka remained more stable. Pre-monsoon (March-April-May, MAM), monsoon (June-July-August-September, JJAS), post-monsoon (October-November, ON), and winter (December-January-February, DJF) were the four seasonal variations that were studied. Different warming patterns were seen in high-altitude and northern regions in May, June, and September, which is consistent with elevation-dependent warming. Unexpected cooling trends were observed in certain months, particularly May and December. Water security, public health, and agriculture are all directly impacted by these spatio-temporal variations. The results highlight the need for additional study on the factors that contribute to regional climate variability, including both natural and man-made forcing factors.

Research highlights

Analysed monthly and seasonal surface temperature variability across 15 agro-climatic zones of South Asia using ERA5 reanalysis data (2001–2023).

High-altitude regions like Afghanistan and Nepal showed stronger winter variability and rapid warming patterns.

Detected localized cooling in May and December in specific zones, indicating complex climatic drivers.

Findings inform regional climate adaptation, water management, and agro-environmental planning.