Abstract <p>Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have a major impact on global climate change by drastically changing the ability of ecosystems to store carbon. To comprehend how changes in land use affect carbon sequestration, it is crucial to monitor terrestrial carbon stocks. The primary objective of this study is to elucidate how current and future land use and land cover (LULC) transitions regulate carbon stock distribution and sequestration dynamics using integrated Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov-InVEST modeling framework in the Inner Himalayan region. This synergistic approach links spatially explicit land-use transition modeling with ecosystem service evaluation to capture the dynamic feedbacks between landscape transformation and carbon fluxes. The carbon stock, as per decadal change analysis in this study, shows a decline in carbon stock of 3.29 x 10⁶ Mg during the 2015–2025 decade, with an estimated value of 573.07 million USD, at an annual rate of 57.3 million USD. The model results show that this trend is likely to continue until 2035, with predicted cost of 561.92 million USD at an annual rate of 56.19 million USD for 2025–2035 decade and a decline in carbon stock of 3.09 x 10⁶ Mg in 2035 compared to 2025. This study intends to demonstrate the role that satellite data plays in improving our comprehension and developing encompassing plans for managing carbon reserves.</p> Research highlights <p><UnorderedList Mark="Bullet"> <ItemContent> <p>The result shows a continuous decline in carbon stocks from <b>3.29 x 10⁶ Mg during 2015-2025 to 3.09 x 10⁶ Mg for 2025-2035.</b></p> </ItemContent> <ItemContent> <p>The decline in carbon stocks is associated with yearly economic losses of 57.3 million USD, reducing slightly to 56.19 million USD.</p> </ItemContent> <ItemContent> <p>Carbon stocks in the vicinity of Imphal city are being significantly impacted by forest cover changes and shrub loss driven on by urban expansion.</p> </ItemContent> </UnorderedList></p>