Decoding cloudburst formation: meteorological factors and advanced forecasting approaches
摘要
Meteorological phenomena such as heightened precipitation, cloudbursts, flash floods, and avalanches in the hilly area (such as Himalayan region) endanger lives along with economies of states and countries. Due to global climate change, such events result in intense spells of rainfall which have become more frequent during the monsoon. However, there is still uncertainty on the underlying mechanisms that cause cloudbursts, comprising the source or origin of the precipitation, its distribution, its thresholds, and orographic lifting. Thus, a comprehensive analysis of the occurrences connected to natural disasters, like flash floods, avalanches, and cloudbursts, has been done to better understand the conditions and relations of atmospheric and meteorological factors. Additionally, a comparison of the several weather forecasting models has been made and analysis is supported by the case study using the weather research and forecast model.
Research HighlightsThe study highlights the historical cloudburst events in India. It provides a review of various weather forecasting models, out of which WRF is observed as most reliable model in predicting and simulating such events. In order to validate the suitability of WRF model, a simulation of Manali 2025 cloudburst was performed. Hence, WRF can be utilized in introducing a reliable early warning system.