Iran has recently experienced pronounced effects of global warming and climate change in recent decades. The present article examines climatic variables like precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature across 10 synoptic sites on Iran’s southern and northern coasts from 1985 to 2023. Four AR6 scenarios of the climate were downscaled using the MPI-ESM1.2-HR model for 2023–2043. The analysis revealed the greatest R2 for precipitation and the least for maximum temperature, reflecting that precipitation performance indices performed better than the temperature indices. The greatest differences for the synoptic sites were observed for maximum temperature, which is due to the high variability between southern and northern Iran. A significant decline in the maximum temperature of the Ramsar station was observed under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, reflecting an air temperature decrease due to climate change. A 4.36% ascension in the maximum temperature and 4.73% at the Kish station under the SSP3-7.0 scenario revealed the drastic extent of warming globally in the southern latitudes. Minimum temperatures increased across all sites under both the SSP3-7.0 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios. Northern sites as a whole are predicted to witness more precipitation growth compared with southern sites. The observations highlight the role played by low-pressure air masses in altering climatic variables. Based on the high number of international wetlands within Iran and the non-adherence of neighbouring countries to water diplomatic commitments, the present article gives meaningful lessons for policymakers in combating climate change and preserving valuable resources. The present study gives meaningful lessons for policymakers, such as the need for implementing region-specific water management strategies due to projected increases in precipitation in the north versus decreases in the south, in combating climate change and preserving valuable resources. Graphical abstract Research Highlights <UnorderedList Mark="Bullet"> <ItemContent> Southern Iran Heats Up, Northern Areas Cool Under SSP3-7.0. </ItemContent> <ItemContent> Minimum Temperatures Rise Nationwide, Precipitation Increases. </ItemContent> <ItemContent> CT Air Mass Drives Wetland-Threatening Rainfall Shifts. </ItemContent> <ItemContent> Policymakers Urged to Act on Iran’s Climate-Wetland Crisis. </ItemContent> </UnorderedList>

Projections of future climates: exploring temperature and precipitation patterns in Iran’s coastal regions with MPI-ESM1.2-HR

期刊论文
发表日期：

2026年2月20日

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Fatemeh Parakandeh Shahrezaei,
Seyedhassan Alavinia,
Ebrahim Omidvar

摘要

Iran has recently experienced pronounced effects of global warming and climate change in recent decades. The present article examines climatic variables like precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature across 10 synoptic sites on Iran’s southern and northern coasts from 1985 to 2023. Four AR6 scenarios of the climate were downscaled using the MPI-ESM1.2-HR model for 2023–2043. The analysis revealed the greatest R² for precipitation and the least for maximum temperature, reflecting that precipitation performance indices performed better than the temperature indices. The greatest differences for the synoptic sites were observed for maximum temperature, which is due to the high variability between southern and northern Iran. A significant decline in the maximum temperature of the Ramsar station was observed under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, reflecting an air temperature decrease due to climate change. A 4.36% ascension in the maximum temperature and 4.73% at the Kish station under the SSP3-7.0 scenario revealed the drastic extent of warming globally in the southern latitudes. Minimum temperatures increased across all sites under both the SSP3-7.0 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios. Northern sites as a whole are predicted to witness more precipitation growth compared with southern sites. The observations highlight the role played by low-pressure air masses in altering climatic variables. Based on the high number of international wetlands within Iran and the non-adherence of neighbouring countries to water diplomatic commitments, the present article gives meaningful lessons for policymakers in combating climate change and preserving valuable resources. The present study gives meaningful lessons for policymakers, such as the need for implementing region-specific water management strategies due to projected increases in precipitation in the north versus decreases in the south, in combating climate change and preserving valuable resources.

Graphical abstract

Research Highlights

Southern Iran Heats Up, Northern Areas Cool Under SSP3-7.0.

Minimum Temperatures Rise Nationwide, Precipitation Increases.

CT Air Mass Drives Wetland-Threatening Rainfall Shifts.

Policymakers Urged to Act on Iran’s Climate-Wetland Crisis.