Abstract The effects of global climate change are becoming increasingly apparent in both developing and developed countries, evident through an increase in extreme weather events, including heavy rainfall, cloudbursts, flash floods, and avalanches. These occurrences are especially perilous in mountainous areas, presenting significant risks to human life and local economies. The distinctive geography of the Indian Himalayan Belt (IHB) fosters circumstances conducive to cloudbursts, which often precipitate flash floods and landslides, leading to considerable loss of life and infrastructure annually. Despite the rising occurrence of such events, systematic documentation and meteorological factors influencing extreme precipitation in the IHB are still limited. Nonetheless, developments in observational technologies over the last thirty years have significantly improved to monitor and measure precipitation at regional levels. Based on the observed patterns, cloudburst occurrences are anticipated to escalate in both frequency and severity in the future. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of 68 compiled inventory of cloudburst (CB)/heavy downpour (HDP) events that occurred between 2011 and 2022 in the Jammu and Kashmir segment of the IHB. The results demonstrate that physiographic parameters significantly influence the spatial distribution and severity of these events. The Shri Amarnath Ji basin and Tral tehsil in Pulwama district of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) have been identified as highly vulnerable areas, highlighting the necessity for proactive mitigation and disaster preparedness measures. The research underscores the pressing need to create a nationwide inventory of CB/HDP incidents. A database of this nature would be crucial for comprehending basin-scale susceptibility patterns and would assist climate modellers and policy planners in formulating targeted adaptation measures to mitigate the increasing risks associated with extreme weather events in the Himalayas. Research highlights <UnorderedList Mark="Bullet"> <ItemContent> This research provides the initial systematic catalogue of 68 cloudburst and heavy downpour events in the Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya from 2011 to 2020. </ItemContent> <ItemContent> The events were predominantly clustered at elevations ranging from 1029 to 4767 m, with the highest percentage (40%) occurring between 3122 and 4089 m, followed by 31% between 2182 and 3122 m, and 26% between 1162 and 2182 m. </ItemContent> <ItemContent> The majority of the incidents predominantly occur between May and August. </ItemContent> <ItemContent> Spatial study indicates increased district-level susceptibility in Ganderbal, Pulwama, Kishtwar, Poonch, and Doda. </ItemContent> <ItemContent> Basin-level evaluation reveals that Pulwama and Anantnag are especially vulnerable to extreme precipitation occurrences. </ItemContent> </UnorderedList>

Analysis of flash flood incidents triggered by cloudbursts and heavy downpours over Jammu and Kashmir, India: A spatiotemporal characteristics and implications

期刊论文
发表日期：

2025年11月29日

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Imran Khan,
Harish Bahuguna,
Ahsan Ul Haq,
Parveen Kumar,
Praveen K Mishra,
Abdul Qayoom Paul

摘要

Abstract

The effects of global climate change are becoming increasingly apparent in both developing and developed countries, evident through an increase in extreme weather events, including heavy rainfall, cloudbursts, flash floods, and avalanches. These occurrences are especially perilous in mountainous areas, presenting significant risks to human life and local economies. The distinctive geography of the Indian Himalayan Belt (IHB) fosters circumstances conducive to cloudbursts, which often precipitate flash floods and landslides, leading to considerable loss of life and infrastructure annually. Despite the rising occurrence of such events, systematic documentation and meteorological factors influencing extreme precipitation in the IHB are still limited. Nonetheless, developments in observational technologies over the last thirty years have significantly improved to monitor and measure precipitation at regional levels. Based on the observed patterns, cloudburst occurrences are anticipated to escalate in both frequency and severity in the future. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of 68 compiled inventory of cloudburst (CB)/heavy downpour (HDP) events that occurred between 2011 and 2022 in the Jammu and Kashmir segment of the IHB. The results demonstrate that physiographic parameters significantly influence the spatial distribution and severity of these events. The Shri Amarnath Ji basin and Tral tehsil in Pulwama district of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) have been identified as highly vulnerable areas, highlighting the necessity for proactive mitigation and disaster preparedness measures. The research underscores the pressing need to create a nationwide inventory of CB/HDP incidents. A database of this nature would be crucial for comprehending basin-scale susceptibility patterns and would assist climate modellers and policy planners in formulating targeted adaptation measures to mitigate the increasing risks associated with extreme weather events in the Himalayas.

Research highlights

This research provides the initial systematic catalogue of 68 cloudburst and heavy downpour events in the Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya from 2011 to 2020.

The events were predominantly clustered at elevations ranging from 1029 to 4767 m, with the highest percentage (40%) occurring between 3122 and 4089 m, followed by 31% between 2182 and 3122 m, and 26% between 1162 and 2182 m.

The majority of the incidents predominantly occur between May and August.

Spatial study indicates increased district-level susceptibility in Ganderbal, Pulwama, Kishtwar, Poonch, and Doda.

Basin-level evaluation reveals that Pulwama and Anantnag are especially vulnerable to extreme precipitation occurrences.