Assessing future glacial lake formation and GLOFs susceptibility in the Mago Watershed, Arunachal Pradesh, India
摘要
In this study, the impact of climate change on glaciers and glacial lakes in the Eastern Himalayas, particularly in the Mago Watershed in Arunachal Pradesh, India, is studied. Using a Python script, ‘Himalayan Glacier Thickness Mapper' (HIGTHIM), the study measures glacier ice thickness, bed topography, potential lakes in the region, and lake volumes. Eleven glaciers covering over 0.5 km2 in the watershed are examined, and 11 future glacial lakes (FGLs) ranging from 0.01 to 0.5 km2 are identified. Some of these lakes have a volume >106 m3, which may be susceptible to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Using predefined criteria for GLOFs susceptibility, eight lakes are considered vulnerable. After applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for pairwise comparison of the glacial lake factors, the study identifies two lakes with very high GLOFs susceptibility, which poses significant risks to downstream communities and infrastructure. As a result, these findings enhance our understanding of the vulnerability of glacial lakes in the region, providing valuable insights that support climate change adaptation strategies and disaster risk management.
Research highlightsThe study focuses on future glacial lakes in Arunachal Pradesh's Mago Watershed. The HIGTHIM tool predicts glacier ice thickness, lake locations, and volumes. Eleven future glacial lakes (FGLs) were identified, with eight susceptibility to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF). Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), two lakes were found to have very high GLOF susceptibility, posing risks to downstream communities.