<p>Rainfall-induced landslides have always been one of India’s most frequent natural hazards. The prevailing sub-tropical climate of the Indian sub-continent is probably the causative factor for landslides. By using TRMM rainfall data, the rainfall thresholds have been estimated for the four landslide-prone regions of India that trigger landslides. The ‘frequentist statistic method’ has been applied to derive the rainfall intensity-duration (ID) and rainfall event-duration (ED) threshold for all the landslide-prone regions of India by taking the past landslides from the period 2007–2016. The ID thresholds are I = 2.9993 × D<sup>–0.4152</sup>, I = 5.8294 × D<sup>–0.4141</sup>, I = 26.88 × D<sup>–0.6885</sup>, and I = 28.01 × D<sup>–0.641</sup> for northwestern Himalaya, northeastern Himalaya, Eastern Ghats, and Western Ghats, respectively. Similarly, E = 2.4721 × D<sup>1.1428</sup>, E = 1.3728 × D<sup>1.1083</sup>, E = 2.7069 × D<sup>1.2609</sup>, and E = 1.0319 × D<sup>1.1741</sup> are the estimated ED thresholds for northwestern Himalaya, northeastern Himalaya, Eastern Ghats, and Western Ghats, respectively. Cumulative rainfall of 2 to 30 days has been compared with the total rainfall on the day of failure to derive the antecedent rainfall thresholds. The Ghats regions of India required more intense rainfall to trigger landslides than the Himalayan regions. However, a larger rainfall event is required for the Western Ghats and northeastern Himalayan regions to trigger a landslide.</p>

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The relation between rainfall and landslides in India: An empirical approach for prediction of landslide

  • Amulya Ratna Roul,
  • Sarada Prasad Pradhan,
  • Soumya Darshan Panda

摘要

Rainfall-induced landslides have always been one of India’s most frequent natural hazards. The prevailing sub-tropical climate of the Indian sub-continent is probably the causative factor for landslides. By using TRMM rainfall data, the rainfall thresholds have been estimated for the four landslide-prone regions of India that trigger landslides. The ‘frequentist statistic method’ has been applied to derive the rainfall intensity-duration (ID) and rainfall event-duration (ED) threshold for all the landslide-prone regions of India by taking the past landslides from the period 2007–2016. The ID thresholds are I = 2.9993 × D–0.4152, I = 5.8294 × D–0.4141, I = 26.88 × D–0.6885, and I = 28.01 × D–0.641 for northwestern Himalaya, northeastern Himalaya, Eastern Ghats, and Western Ghats, respectively. Similarly, E = 2.4721 × D1.1428, E = 1.3728 × D1.1083, E = 2.7069 × D1.2609, and E = 1.0319 × D1.1741 are the estimated ED thresholds for northwestern Himalaya, northeastern Himalaya, Eastern Ghats, and Western Ghats, respectively. Cumulative rainfall of 2 to 30 days has been compared with the total rainfall on the day of failure to derive the antecedent rainfall thresholds. The Ghats regions of India required more intense rainfall to trigger landslides than the Himalayan regions. However, a larger rainfall event is required for the Western Ghats and northeastern Himalayan regions to trigger a landslide.