Overview of climate change data on India and SAARC countries

This study attempts to answer the question: If global warming were to increase by 1.5°, 2° and 3°C (compared to the pre-industrial baseline of 1850–1900), at what rate would South Asia be warming? A basis for influencing climate policy-making in India and countries part of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (i.e., SAARC, including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) has been put forth. IPCC provides tools for analyzing mean near-surface air temperature data using CMIP6 (global climate model) and CORDEX-SA (regional climate model). This study reports the generated outputs from both projection models by analyzing and comparing data to better understand climate change in the region. While CMIP6 provided a coherent overall picture of South Asia, CORDEX-SA projected the average temperature variations of Indian states better. The decreasing order in which Indian states are expected to be affected by average temperature rise is Himalayan states from north to north-east; northwestern and western states along the Pakistan border; western coastline along the Arabian Sea; southern states along the eastern coastline (Bay of Bengal); central and eastern states. Both models projected the temperature rise in the Indian state of West Bengal to be the highest in the coming decades. Among SAARC nations, Afghanistan was projected to be the most affected and Bangladesh the least, following the same pattern of temperature variation as the Indian regions neighbouring them. Further, it was found that a mean temperature rise of 1.5° and 3°C would occur over South Asia in the timeframe of 2035–2038 and 2062–2068, respectively. Regarding monthly variation, temperature rise is expected to affect the period of January (average 1.35°C rise) to April (average 1.05°C rise) the most.