Role of strong subsurface mode on the anomalous basin-wide surface warming of the Tropical Indian Ocean in 2019–2020

2019 witnessed one of the strongest positive Indian Ocean Dipole. A very strong positive subsurface mode (pSSM) co-evolved in the Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) during September–October–November 2019, which strengthened further during December–January–February (DJF) 2019–2020. This is the first occurrence of such a very strong pSSM in the recent decades, which strengthened during DJF without any favourable forcing from the Pacific. The TIO further displayed anomalous basin-wide surface warming from winter 2019 to summer 2020. It is found from both observations and model experiments that ocean dynamics associated with pSSM played a major role in the TIO basin-wide warming during 2020. The subsurface–surface interaction along the downwelling Rossby wave path from boreal winter to spring, the reflected Kelvin waves and surface currents have contributed to the basin-wide surface warming of the TIO from DJF (2019–2020) onwards. The mixed layer heat budget analysis reveals that the surface heat fluxes were not favourable for the basin-wide surface warming, thereby undermining the role of any Pacific forcing through atmospheric pathways. The ocean model sensitivity experiments further highlight the importance of Indian Ocean dynamics in the co-evolution of subsurface temperature and sea surface temperature over TIO, especially during the 2019–2020 event.

A strong subsurface dipole mode evolved in the Tropical Indian Ocean temperature during 2019–2020.