Factors Predicting Prognosis in Metastatic Grade 1 Gastro-entero-pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors

The incidence of gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (GEP-NET) has steadily increased. These tumors are considered relatively indolent even when metastatic. What determines survival outcomes in such situations is understudied.

Retrospective analysis of a prospectively maintained NET clinic database, to include patients of metastatic grade 1 GEP-NET, from January 2018 to December 2021, to assess factors affecting progression-free survival (PFS).

Of the 589 patients of GEP-NET treated during the study period, 100 were grade 1, with radiological evidence of distant metastasis. The median age was 50 years, with 67% being men. Of these, 15 patients were observed, while 85 patients received treatment in the form of surgery (n = 32), peptide receptor radionuclide therapy (n = 50), octreotide LAR (n = 22), and/or chemotherapy (n = 4), either as a single modality or multi-modality treatment. The median (PFS) was 54.5 months. The estimated 3-year PFS and 3-year overall survival rates were 72.3% (SE 0.048) and 93.4% (SE 0.026), respectively. On Cox regression, a high liver tumor burden was the only independent predictor of PFS (OR 3.443, p = 0.014). The 5-year OS of patients with concomitant extra-hepatic disease was significantly lower than that of patients with liver-limited disease (70.7% vs. 100%, p = 0.017).

A higher burden of liver disease is associated with shorter PFS in patients with metastatic grade I GEP-NETs. The OS is significantly lower in patients with associated extrahepatic involvement. These parameters may justify a more aggressive treatment approach in metastatic grade 1 GEP-NETs.