Gender and tumor size-specific calcitonin cutoff value for diagnosing MTC in 10,618 patients with thyroid nodule surgery

Calcitonin is a sensitive marker for medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) diagnosis and postsurgical follow-up. This study aimed to define the gender and tumor size-specific calcitonin cutoff values for diagnosing MTC.

This retrospective study recruited 95 MTC patients and 10,523 non-MTC patients who underwent thyroid nodule surgery at Zhongshan Hospital between January 2015 and June 2023. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to assess calcitonin cutoff values for diagnosing MTC.

Calcitonin levels in non-MTC patients were influenced by gender, CKD stage and age, with gender being the highest ranked predictor. In MTC patients, calcitonin levels were associated with tumor diameter, lymph node metastasis, and TNM stage. In the entire study population, calcitonin cutoff values to diagnose MTC were 17.75 pg/mL for males (sensitivity: 97.60%, specificity: 99.40%) and 7.15 pg/mL for females (sensitivity: 94.34%, specificity: 99.22%). In patients with a thyroid nodule diameter ≤10 mm, the calcitonin cutoff values to diagnose MTC were 17.50 pg/mL for males (sensitivity: 95.00%, specificity: 99.27%) and 7.15 pg/mL for females (sensitivity: 90.91%, specificity: 99.04%). In patients with a thyroid nodule diameter >10 mm, the calcitonin cutoff values to diagnose MTC were 104.80 pg/mL for males (sensitivity: 100.00%, specificity: 100.00%) and 32.60 pg/mL for females (sensitivity: 96.77%, specificity: 100.00%).

We have identified the gender and tumor size-specific cutoff values for the diagnosis of MTC. Cutoff values based on gender and tumor diameter may help to improve the accuracy of preoperative diagnosis of MTC, which is worth to be verified by future studies.