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<p>Urban agricultural systems in industrial areas face escalating threats from heavy metal contamination, endangering ecosystem stability and public health. This study investigates the spatial distribution, bioaccumulation, and health risks associated with heavy metals across the environmental media and food items in three Nigerian cities: Owerri, Aba, and Port Harcourt, using deterministic and stochastic (Monte Carlo simulation) approaches. Atomic absorption spectrophotometry (AAS) analysis revealed that toxic metal levels in soils followed the same order Pb &gt; Cu &gt; Cd in Owerri and Port Harcourt, but exhibits different order Pb &gt; Cd &gt; Cu in Aba site. Similarly, the trends of increase of toxic metal concentration recorded for water in Aba were Cd &gt; Cu &gt; Pb, whereas Owerri and Port Harcourt share the same trend of Pb &gt; Cd &gt; Cu. However, all three locations had the same order of Pb &gt; Cd &gt; Cu for toxic metals in fish and vegetables. Whereas the deterministic risk assessment approach revealed that the cadmium had the highest ILCR, exceeding the international acceptable threshold of 1 × 10⁻⁶ (USEPA’s) in all the sites for the entire sample examined, suggesting cadmium as the most hazardous contaminant in the media and food items. Meanwhile, the Monte Carlo simulated results for Pb and Cd in the most realistic assessment suggested that an average of five (5) individuals in a million populations have a probability of developing cancer effects over long-term exposure to contaminants. Also, the correlation analysis conducted showed that soil and vegetables had strong statistical positive relationships (Pb-Cd: <i>r</i> = 0.79; Cd-Cu: <i>r</i> = 0.91; <i>p</i> &lt; 0.01), suggesting industrial emissions and poor waste management as key drivers of exposure. These findings mandate urgent policy reforms, including phyto-remediation initiatives, industrial effluent controls, and community awareness programs to mitigate the exposure rate.</p>

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Monte Carlo-Based Assessment of Toxic Metal Contaminations in Urban Agricultural Systems: A Case Study of Lead, Cadmium, and Copper in Vegetables and Fish from Nigeria

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月2日

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  • Eudora Nwanaforo,
  • Cecilia N. Obasi,
  • Ismail Olawale Akande,
  • John Kanayochukwu Nduka,
  • Chideraa Courage Offor,
  • Prosper Manu Abdulai,
  • Godswill J. Udom,
  • Orish Ebere Orisakwe

摘要

Urban agricultural systems in industrial areas face escalating threats from heavy metal contamination, endangering ecosystem stability and public health. This study investigates the spatial distribution, bioaccumulation, and health risks associated with heavy metals across the environmental media and food items in three Nigerian cities: Owerri, Aba, and Port Harcourt, using deterministic and stochastic (Monte Carlo simulation) approaches. Atomic absorption spectrophotometry (AAS) analysis revealed that toxic metal levels in soils followed the same order Pb > Cu > Cd in Owerri and Port Harcourt, but exhibits different order Pb > Cd > Cu in Aba site. Similarly, the trends of increase of toxic metal concentration recorded for water in Aba were Cd > Cu > Pb, whereas Owerri and Port Harcourt share the same trend of Pb > Cd > Cu. However, all three locations had the same order of Pb > Cd > Cu for toxic metals in fish and vegetables. Whereas the deterministic risk assessment approach revealed that the cadmium had the highest ILCR, exceeding the international acceptable threshold of 1 × 10⁻⁶ (USEPA’s) in all the sites for the entire sample examined, suggesting cadmium as the most hazardous contaminant in the media and food items. Meanwhile, the Monte Carlo simulated results for Pb and Cd in the most realistic assessment suggested that an average of five (5) individuals in a million populations have a probability of developing cancer effects over long-term exposure to contaminants. Also, the correlation analysis conducted showed that soil and vegetables had strong statistical positive relationships (Pb-Cd: r = 0.79; Cd-Cu: r = 0.91; p < 0.01), suggesting industrial emissions and poor waste management as key drivers of exposure. These findings mandate urgent policy reforms, including phyto-remediation initiatives, industrial effluent controls, and community awareness programs to mitigate the exposure rate.