Statistical Literacy in the Police: Handling Statistical Information and Using it for Risk Assessments

Statistics are used in the police, for example, to show changes in crime trends over time and to provide evidence for the effectiveness of crime prevention measures. Statistical literacy is the ability to understand and draw sound conclusions from statistical data; therefore, it contributes to professional competencies in police work. In the present study, the handling of statistics and probabilities by police commissioner trainees is examined in more detail, focusing on risk literacy. Using police-related scenarios, it is examined whether biases can occur in the assessment of probabilities and risks, as is the case in other professions. Both the conjunction fallacy and the base rate neglect could be demonstrated and are discussed in terms of their relevance for training and police work in general.