Background <p>This study aims to assess PM<sub>2.5</sub>-attributable five chronic diseases burden in BRICS-plus over 1990–2021, identify key driving factors, and provide evidence for targeted air quality and public health policies.</p> Methods <p>We analyzed the PM<sub>2.5</sub>-attributable burden of ischemic heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and tracheal/bronchus/lung cancer for both ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> and household air pollution from solid fuel combustion (HAP). Decomposition analysis (aging, population, epidemiological change) and population attributable fractions (PAFs) were used to explore burden drivers and preventable disease burden.</p> Results <p>Ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub>-attributable chronic disease burdens showed an upward trend in most BRICS-plus, particularly of T2DM burden in China (from 14.10 [6.17,25.82] to 134.47 [72.81,213.96] from 1990 to 2021) and India (from 15.41 [7.58,27.09] to 102.53 [53.86,161.27] from 1990 to 2021). HAP-attributable showed increases trend in India and Ethiopia. Population has made a consistent positive contribution to the evolving disease burdens. Ethiopia showing the highest HAP-PAFs (COPD: 60.83%, stroke: 39.58%). Egypt and Saudi Arabia showed highest ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub>-PAF.</p> Conclusions <p>Overall, ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> has become an important contributor to chronic disease burdens (notably in China and India), while HAP-attributable burdens generally declined except in India and Ethiopia. Population contributed positively to five disease burdens, aging and epidemiological changes notable country differences. Reducing PM<sub>2.5</sub> and HAP to TMREL significantly alleviated disease burdens (particularly COPD). BRICS-plus countries should address ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub>and HAP, population growth and protect vulnerable groups to mitigate the long‑term PM<sub>2.5</sub>-related disease burdens.</p>

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PM2.5-attributable chronic disease burden in BRICS–plus countries, 1990–2021: temporal trends and health benefits from optimal control

  • Jiachang Wei,
  • Mengfei Yang,
  • Yiyang Sun,
  • Quanxi Ge,
  • Sha Yang,
  • Guanran Wang,
  • Jing Ding,
  • Sihan Sun,
  • Li Li

摘要

Background

This study aims to assess PM2.5-attributable five chronic diseases burden in BRICS-plus over 1990–2021, identify key driving factors, and provide evidence for targeted air quality and public health policies.

Methods

We analyzed the PM2.5-attributable burden of ischemic heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and tracheal/bronchus/lung cancer for both ambient PM2.5 and household air pollution from solid fuel combustion (HAP). Decomposition analysis (aging, population, epidemiological change) and population attributable fractions (PAFs) were used to explore burden drivers and preventable disease burden.

Results

Ambient PM2.5-attributable chronic disease burdens showed an upward trend in most BRICS-plus, particularly of T2DM burden in China (from 14.10 [6.17,25.82] to 134.47 [72.81,213.96] from 1990 to 2021) and India (from 15.41 [7.58,27.09] to 102.53 [53.86,161.27] from 1990 to 2021). HAP-attributable showed increases trend in India and Ethiopia. Population has made a consistent positive contribution to the evolving disease burdens. Ethiopia showing the highest HAP-PAFs (COPD: 60.83%, stroke: 39.58%). Egypt and Saudi Arabia showed highest ambient PM2.5-PAF.

Conclusions

Overall, ambient PM2.5 has become an important contributor to chronic disease burdens (notably in China and India), while HAP-attributable burdens generally declined except in India and Ethiopia. Population contributed positively to five disease burdens, aging and epidemiological changes notable country differences. Reducing PM2.5 and HAP to TMREL significantly alleviated disease burdens (particularly COPD). BRICS-plus countries should address ambient PM2.5and HAP, population growth and protect vulnerable groups to mitigate the long‑term PM2.5-related disease burdens.