<p>Carbon mitigation policies have emerged as a pivotal strategy for mitigating global climate warming, making it imperative to accurately evaluate the effectiveness of such policies. This study employs a textual analysis approach to construct an indicator of carbon policy intensity (CPI) at the municipal level in China, and utilizes unbalanced panel data from 2006 to 2021 to examine its impact on carbon emissions (CE) in China. The findings reveal as follows: (1) CPI exerts a significant positive effect on reducing carbon emissions, a conclusion that remains robust after being validated by a series of robustness strategies, including multi-time-point difference-in-differences. (2) CPI primarily facilitates carbon emission reduction by stimulating green innovation and promoting the upgrading of industrial structures. (3) CPI demonstrates a more pronounced effect on emission reduction in eastern regions and areas with lower levels of carbon emissions, while its effect is relatively weaker in central and western regions and areas with higher levels of carbon emissions. The research not only confirms China’s positive efforts in carbon mitigation policies but also underscores the necessity of formulating regionally targeted, differentiated carbon policies.</p>