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<p>This study investigates the asymmetric long- and short-run determinants of fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) air pollution in Saudi Arabia over the period 1995–2023. Using a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model with Newey–West standard errors, the analysis incorporates gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, industrial activity, energy use, urban population growth, and agricultural development, with Wald tests employed to examine asymmetries and robustness checks performed through a conventional ARDL framework. The results reveal strong asymmetric effects: in the long run, a 1% increase in GDP per capita reduces PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions by approximately 6.3%, consistent with the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, while negative GDP shocks deteriorate air quality in the short run. Industrial and energy expansions significantly elevate PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions in the short run (coefficients ≈ + 1.44 and + 3.89, respectively), whereas contractions mitigate pollution. Urban growth exerts a positive short-run effect on emissions (+ 0.03) but contributes to reductions in the long run (− 0.08). Agricultural contractions consistently lower PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations both in the long run (− 0.13) and short run (− 0.12). By highlighting the asymmetric pollution–economy nexus in a resource-dependent economy, this study underscores the importance of policy strategies that promote clean economic growth, accelerate renewable energy adoption, integrate sustainable urban planning, and foster climate-smart agricultural practices, emphasizing that effective environmental management must account for both the scale and direction of economic and structural changes.</p>

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Decoding the asymmetric relationship between economic activity and air pollution in Saudi Arabia: evidence from a NARDL model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月15日

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  • Ihsen Abid

摘要

This study investigates the asymmetric long- and short-run determinants of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution in Saudi Arabia over the period 1995–2023. Using a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model with Newey–West standard errors, the analysis incorporates gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, industrial activity, energy use, urban population growth, and agricultural development, with Wald tests employed to examine asymmetries and robustness checks performed through a conventional ARDL framework. The results reveal strong asymmetric effects: in the long run, a 1% increase in GDP per capita reduces PM2.5 emissions by approximately 6.3%, consistent with the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, while negative GDP shocks deteriorate air quality in the short run. Industrial and energy expansions significantly elevate PM2.5 emissions in the short run (coefficients ≈ + 1.44 and + 3.89, respectively), whereas contractions mitigate pollution. Urban growth exerts a positive short-run effect on emissions (+ 0.03) but contributes to reductions in the long run (− 0.08). Agricultural contractions consistently lower PM2.5 concentrations both in the long run (− 0.13) and short run (− 0.12). By highlighting the asymmetric pollution–economy nexus in a resource-dependent economy, this study underscores the importance of policy strategies that promote clean economic growth, accelerate renewable energy adoption, integrate sustainable urban planning, and foster climate-smart agricultural practices, emphasizing that effective environmental management must account for both the scale and direction of economic and structural changes.