<p>Understanding the impact of human activities on regional sustainable development requires understanding land-use carbon emissions in urban areas since land-use carbon emissions are the second largest source of emissions after energy combustion, and cities are the primary source and aggregator of emissions. Combined with ArcGIS software, this study analyzed the land use and carbon emissions in Nanjing and explored the driving factors leading to the carbon emissions from land use in Nanjing based on the geo-detectors. Meanwhile, combined with the suitability atlas, the land use of Nanjing in 2030 and 2040 was predicted using the Markov model. The analysis results show that construction land continues to expand at an average annual growth rate of 1.74%, with its carbon emissions contributing 31% to total carbon emissions, making it the primary carbon source; cultivated land area has significantly decreased, with a notable decline during the 2018–2020 period, resulting in a net reduction of 159,402.15 hectares; forest land serves as the primary carbon sink, accounting for 92% of total carbon absorption; Geographic detectors revealed that land structure, policy support, and fixed-asset investment are the dominant factors influencing carbon emissions; projections for 2030–2040 indicate that the proportion of construction land will increase to 31.95%, while carbon sink forest land will decrease by 18.92%, exacerbating emission reduction pressures. The research findings provide scientific basis for low-carbon land use planning and recommend advancing the " dual carbon” goals through coordinated efforts in ecological red line management and industrial structure optimization.</p>