Effects of ozone pollution on crops and human health: evidence from the “2 + 36” cities of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding regions, China
摘要
Near-surface ozone (O3) pollution adversely impacts crop productivity and public health, yet its effects on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding regions (“2 + 36” cities) remains understudied. To address this gap, based on city-scale hourly O₃ concentration data from 2020 to 2022, we employed dose–response and health impact assessment methods to quantify the effects of O₃ pollution on crop yields, human health, and related economic costs in the “2 + 36” cities. The results revealed that: (1) The annual mean O3 concentrations were 166.97–175.97 μg/m3, with Accumulated O₃ exposure over a threshold of 0.04 ppm (AOT40) values of 9.54–12.49 ppm h for wheat and 10.59–11.77 ppm h for maize during the critical growth periods. (2) The relative yield loss (RYL) for wheat ranged from 19.55% to 26.38%, with crop production losses (CPL) of 1643.40–2386.87 × 104 t, whereas maize had an RYL of 6.11%–6.79% and CPL of 414.1–445.96 × 104 t. (3) O3 pollution caused significant premature mortality, with annual estimates of approximately 38,500 deaths from cardiovascular diseases and up to 69,973 all-cause deaths. (4) The economic cost losses (ECL) for wheat and maize were 6.61–10.14 billion USD and 1.54–1.87 billion USD, respectively, while premature mortality-related ECL reached 69.25–122.05 billion CNY. Our findings call for integrated policies—including stringent emission controls, O₃-resistant crop cultivation, and enhanced public health monitoring—to mitigate the diverse impacts of O₃ pollution in the “2 + 36” cities.