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<p>The course of Storm Daniel from September 4 to 10, 2023 caused deadly floods, leading to very contrasting human tolls: around thirty deaths in south-eastern Europe with rainfall of 600 to 700&#xa0;mm, while in north-eastern Libya more than 6 000 people died in the city of Derna (150–414.1&#xa0;mm of precipitation), which raises many interrogations. The objective of this study is therefore to map the areas most vulnerable to flooding in the city of Derna, to identify the factors causing the disaster and to highlight the appropriate relationship between the risk and its parameters (hazard, vulnerability and issues) in order to avoid this type of scenario. To do this, we used two high-resolution images, one before the disaster (16/06/2023) and the other just after (13/09/2023). The results show that 33.89% of the area of the city of Derna was covered with mud and about 23.14% of the habitable areas were completely or partially destroyed. This hurricane increased the coastline by around 15.61% and reduced the city’s road network by around 5.76%. These floods are due to four main factors. Two are external and unmanageable: the intensity of the storm and the geomorphological characteristics and geographic location of the city. The other two are internal and manageable: population density (10 869 inhabitants/km<sup>2</sup>) and favored urban sprawl. The disproportionate extent of the damage has a double anthropogenic origin: (i) one directly linked to the location of the Derna dam, initially conceived as a solution to protect the city from flooding, but which paradoxically became the main responsible for the very heavy human losses, amplifying the four factors cited above following its sudden rupture; (ii) the other in connection with the inappropriate management adopted before this foreseeable event. The loss of human life could therefore have been avoided, despite the intensity and vulnerability, because the event was foreseeable, with sufficient time to react and take decisions, even extreme ones, to evacuate to safer locations in the event of doubt about the risk assessment, given the importance of the issues at stake. This explains why the catastrophic nature of an event is always disproportionate and generally does not reflect the risks involved. They are the result of poor decision-making due to poor risk assessment and anticipation, and therefore poor management.</p>

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Mapping of areas vulnerable to the floods of September 10, 2023 affecting the City of Derna (Libya) and analysis of the disproportionate scale of the disaster recorded

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月20日

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  • Kamel Hachemi,
  • Abdullah O. Bamousa,
  • Mohamed Daoudi,
  • Amane El Ouarradi

摘要

The course of Storm Daniel from September 4 to 10, 2023 caused deadly floods, leading to very contrasting human tolls: around thirty deaths in south-eastern Europe with rainfall of 600 to 700 mm, while in north-eastern Libya more than 6 000 people died in the city of Derna (150–414.1 mm of precipitation), which raises many interrogations. The objective of this study is therefore to map the areas most vulnerable to flooding in the city of Derna, to identify the factors causing the disaster and to highlight the appropriate relationship between the risk and its parameters (hazard, vulnerability and issues) in order to avoid this type of scenario. To do this, we used two high-resolution images, one before the disaster (16/06/2023) and the other just after (13/09/2023). The results show that 33.89% of the area of the city of Derna was covered with mud and about 23.14% of the habitable areas were completely or partially destroyed. This hurricane increased the coastline by around 15.61% and reduced the city’s road network by around 5.76%. These floods are due to four main factors. Two are external and unmanageable: the intensity of the storm and the geomorphological characteristics and geographic location of the city. The other two are internal and manageable: population density (10 869 inhabitants/km2) and favored urban sprawl. The disproportionate extent of the damage has a double anthropogenic origin: (i) one directly linked to the location of the Derna dam, initially conceived as a solution to protect the city from flooding, but which paradoxically became the main responsible for the very heavy human losses, amplifying the four factors cited above following its sudden rupture; (ii) the other in connection with the inappropriate management adopted before this foreseeable event. The loss of human life could therefore have been avoided, despite the intensity and vulnerability, because the event was foreseeable, with sufficient time to react and take decisions, even extreme ones, to evacuate to safer locations in the event of doubt about the risk assessment, given the importance of the issues at stake. This explains why the catastrophic nature of an event is always disproportionate and generally does not reflect the risks involved. They are the result of poor decision-making due to poor risk assessment and anticipation, and therefore poor management.