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<p>Climate change accelerates deterioration of reinforced concrete (RC) infrastructure through temperature-dependent chloride transport, carbonation acceleration, and thermal micro-cracking and increased exposure to coastal hazards. This study presents a mechanistic-probabilistic durability framework integrating (1) time-and temperature-dependent chloride diffusion, (2) carbonation progression, (3) Monte Carlo–based reliability assessment, and (4) digital twin-supported monitoring for adaptive decision-making. Modeling results indicate that a 10–20°C increase in pore temperature raises apparent chloride diffusivity by 50–120%, reducing corrosion initiation time by 20–50% for typical marine RC configurations. Reliability indices at 25&#xa0;years decline from approximately 1.8 (baseline) to 0.8 under warming, highlighting elevated early-corrosion risk. Adaptation strategies optimized SCM/LC3 binders, increased cover depth, hydrophobic surface treatments, cathodic protection, and continuous sensing are shown to recover target reliability levels while supporting sustainability objectives. The framework emphasizes climate-aware durability design and dynamic lifecycle management, particularly for coastal infrastructure subject to compound climate hazards.</p>

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Assessment of Material Degradation Under Climate Change: Modeling and Reliability-Based Evaluation of Reinforced Concrete Durability

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月15日

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  • K. Sathya Prabha,
  • A. Belin Jude,
  • A. Bovas Herbert Bejaxhin

摘要

Climate change accelerates deterioration of reinforced concrete (RC) infrastructure through temperature-dependent chloride transport, carbonation acceleration, and thermal micro-cracking and increased exposure to coastal hazards. This study presents a mechanistic-probabilistic durability framework integrating (1) time-and temperature-dependent chloride diffusion, (2) carbonation progression, (3) Monte Carlo–based reliability assessment, and (4) digital twin-supported monitoring for adaptive decision-making. Modeling results indicate that a 10–20°C increase in pore temperature raises apparent chloride diffusivity by 50–120%, reducing corrosion initiation time by 20–50% for typical marine RC configurations. Reliability indices at 25 years decline from approximately 1.8 (baseline) to 0.8 under warming, highlighting elevated early-corrosion risk. Adaptation strategies optimized SCM/LC3 binders, increased cover depth, hydrophobic surface treatments, cathodic protection, and continuous sensing are shown to recover target reliability levels while supporting sustainability objectives. The framework emphasizes climate-aware durability design and dynamic lifecycle management, particularly for coastal infrastructure subject to compound climate hazards.