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<p>The stochastic extended finite-fault simulation method (EXSIM) is a widely used tool in seismological research, with applications in ground motion prediction and simulation, seismic hazard analysis, and engineering studies. However, recent studies have revealed a significant limitation: EXSIM tends to overpredict ground motions in the low-to-intermediate frequency range, particularly for large thrust earthquakes that are often characterized by a double-corner-frequency source model. To address this issue and enhance simulation accuracy, this study introduces two key improvements: (1) a novel asperity-distributed stress-drop composite fault model and (2) a hybrid application of EXSIM with the composite fault model. The proposed method is validated through its application to the 2013 <i>M</i><sub>w</sub> 6.7 Lushan earthquake that occurred in China and six thrust earthquakes with an <i>M</i><sub>w</sub> ≥ 6.5 in Japan. By comparing the simulated ground motions with recorded data, the results demonstrate that the improved method achieves consistent accuracy across the high- and low-frequency spectrum (combined goodness-of-fit: CGOF &lt; 0.35). This study significantly broadens the applicability of stochastic finite-fault simulations, enabling more reliable predictions for a wider range of seismic scenarios, including complex thrust faulting events.</p>

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An improved stochastic finite-fault simulation method and its application to large magnitude thrust earthquakes

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月1日

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  • Wanjun Ma,
  • Zhinan Xie

摘要

The stochastic extended finite-fault simulation method (EXSIM) is a widely used tool in seismological research, with applications in ground motion prediction and simulation, seismic hazard analysis, and engineering studies. However, recent studies have revealed a significant limitation: EXSIM tends to overpredict ground motions in the low-to-intermediate frequency range, particularly for large thrust earthquakes that are often characterized by a double-corner-frequency source model. To address this issue and enhance simulation accuracy, this study introduces two key improvements: (1) a novel asperity-distributed stress-drop composite fault model and (2) a hybrid application of EXSIM with the composite fault model. The proposed method is validated through its application to the 2013 Mw 6.7 Lushan earthquake that occurred in China and six thrust earthquakes with an Mw ≥ 6.5 in Japan. By comparing the simulated ground motions with recorded data, the results demonstrate that the improved method achieves consistent accuracy across the high- and low-frequency spectrum (combined goodness-of-fit: CGOF < 0.35). This study significantly broadens the applicability of stochastic finite-fault simulations, enabling more reliable predictions for a wider range of seismic scenarios, including complex thrust faulting events.