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<p>We develop a simple model of the <i>underdetermination of theory by data</i> using “crazy dice” – standardly shaped dice with non-standard labellings – and we use the model to illustrate a number of distinct ways that scientific data (the probability distributions of the dice) can underdetermine our theories of that data (claims about the shapes, labellings, number, and identity of the dice). We conclude by drawing some tentative conclusions regarding what this model has to teach us about the underdetermination of theory by data in general.</p>

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Crazy Dice, Chance, and Counting Causes

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月24日

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  • Roy T. Cook

摘要

We develop a simple model of the underdetermination of theory by data using “crazy dice” – standardly shaped dice with non-standard labellings – and we use the model to illustrate a number of distinct ways that scientific data (the probability distributions of the dice) can underdetermine our theories of that data (claims about the shapes, labellings, number, and identity of the dice). We conclude by drawing some tentative conclusions regarding what this model has to teach us about the underdetermination of theory by data in general.