Uncovering the germanium sustainability up to 2050 in China

Germanium, a critical yet often overlooked metal, has experienced significant shifts in its global market, largely driven by China’s dominant role. However, concerns are growing over the sustainability of germanium supply in China due to imbalances in mining, manufacturing, recycling, and rising demand. In this study, we employ substance flow analysis to provide a quantitative assessment of China’s germanium flow system in 2019, and we project future demand and anthropogenic mineral generation up to 2050 using stock-driven models. Our results indicate that by 2050, domestic demand for germanium will increase to 164–187 t—double the demand in 2019—with infrared optics and solar cells being the primary drivers. A supply shortage is anticipated before 2040, although recycling through urban mining could meet around 30% of the demand. These findings underscore the urgent need to address emerging supply challenges and offer critical insights for policymakers and stakeholders to inform strategic decision-making.