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<p>This study comprehensively accounts for the randomness in the geometric distribution and mechanical parameters of block bounding discontinuities by incorporating a probabilistic model into block theory. Blocks are classified according to a critical edge length, and Monte Carlo simulation is employed to calculate the formation probability and failure probability of blocks of different sizes. By computing the geometric formation probability and mechanical failure probability of blocks within each class, a total failure probability model for block stability is established and applied to evaluate the stability and reliability of key blocks. Furthermore, using a random block analysis and unfolding procedure for tunnels, the overall distribution pattern of potential sliding blocks in the rock mass surrounding the tunnel excavation face is investigated. This enables a more precise quantitative assessment of block stability and reliability and provides a basis for transforming key blocks and potentially unstable blocks into stable ones.</p>

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Analysis of the probability and distribution patterns of local block instability in the surrounding rock of large section tunnels during construction

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月29日

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  • Shujun Jiao,
  • Guozhang Ding,
  • Cong Fang,
  • Feng Jiang,
  • Jie Zhang,
  • Han Wu,
  • Gang Wang,
  • Peng He,
  • Wen Zheng,
  • Yue Wu,
  • Zhiyong Xiao

摘要

This study comprehensively accounts for the randomness in the geometric distribution and mechanical parameters of block bounding discontinuities by incorporating a probabilistic model into block theory. Blocks are classified according to a critical edge length, and Monte Carlo simulation is employed to calculate the formation probability and failure probability of blocks of different sizes. By computing the geometric formation probability and mechanical failure probability of blocks within each class, a total failure probability model for block stability is established and applied to evaluate the stability and reliability of key blocks. Furthermore, using a random block analysis and unfolding procedure for tunnels, the overall distribution pattern of potential sliding blocks in the rock mass surrounding the tunnel excavation face is investigated. This enables a more precise quantitative assessment of block stability and reliability and provides a basis for transforming key blocks and potentially unstable blocks into stable ones.