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<p>Geothermal energy plays a central role in advancing global decarbonization objectives. However, large-scale geothermal exploitation—particularly through production–reinjection doublet systems—can induce significant ground subsidence, posing risks to both infrastructure and reservoir sustainability. This review examines the geophysical mechanisms underlying subsidence in geothermal systems, emphasizing poroelastic, thermoelastic, and fault-reactivation processes. It critically evaluates predictive modeling approaches, including analytical solutions, finite-element and finite-difference methods, and recent developments in coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) frameworks and artificial intelligence-assisted surrogates. The review also synthesizes current monitoring technologies, such as interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), global navigation satellite systems (GNSS), microseismic arrays, and gravimetric surveys, comparing their spatial resolution, sensitivity, and integration potential. Attention is given to real-time data assimilation, digital twin architectures, and early warning systems for adaptive reservoir management. Case studies from Europe, China, and other geothermal regions are used to illustrate monitoring applications, modeling uncertainties, and regulatory responses. The findings underscore the importance of integrated geophysical modeling and surveillance in ensuring the safe, efficient, and sustainable development of geothermal resources aligned with carbon neutrality targets.</p>

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Geophysical Modeling and Monitoring Techniques for Managing Subsidence Risk in Geothermal Production–Reinjection Systems for Sustainable Development of Zero-Carbon Highways

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月25日

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  • Xian-feng Tan,
  • Geng-yang Wu,
  • Feng Chu,
  • Fan-meng Kong,
  • Shu-jian Wang,
  • Jing-kai Qu,
  • Xin-jian Lv,
  • Yi-guo Xue

摘要

Geothermal energy plays a central role in advancing global decarbonization objectives. However, large-scale geothermal exploitation—particularly through production–reinjection doublet systems—can induce significant ground subsidence, posing risks to both infrastructure and reservoir sustainability. This review examines the geophysical mechanisms underlying subsidence in geothermal systems, emphasizing poroelastic, thermoelastic, and fault-reactivation processes. It critically evaluates predictive modeling approaches, including analytical solutions, finite-element and finite-difference methods, and recent developments in coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) frameworks and artificial intelligence-assisted surrogates. The review also synthesizes current monitoring technologies, such as interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), global navigation satellite systems (GNSS), microseismic arrays, and gravimetric surveys, comparing their spatial resolution, sensitivity, and integration potential. Attention is given to real-time data assimilation, digital twin architectures, and early warning systems for adaptive reservoir management. Case studies from Europe, China, and other geothermal regions are used to illustrate monitoring applications, modeling uncertainties, and regulatory responses. The findings underscore the importance of integrated geophysical modeling and surveillance in ensuring the safe, efficient, and sustainable development of geothermal resources aligned with carbon neutrality targets.