Multi-Parameter Analysis of Stress Accumulation and Evolution Prior to the 2020 Guye MS5.1 Earthquake, North China: Insights from Apparent Stress, b-value, and Focal Mechanism Consistency
摘要
The 2020 Guye MS5.1 earthquake exhibited a significantly higher magnitude compared to the decay trend of the 1976 Tangshan MS7.8 earthquake sequence. Additionally, a MS4.8 earthquake occurred approximately 10 km from the Guye earthquake in 2012. To explore why this region has become a concentrated area for moderate to strong earthquakes in the Tangshan seismic zone in recent years, this study integrates three methods-apparent stress, b-value, and focal mechanism consistency-to investigate the stress changes within the rupture zone and the preparatory process of the 2020 Guye earthquake. The findings reveal that while multiple high-stress areas exist in Tangshan, the intersection of the Tangshan-Guye Fault and the Mozhouyu Fault to the east of the epicenter experienced the highest apparent stress prior to the earthquake, ultimately leading to the occurrence of the Guye earthquake at this location. Before the Guye earthquake, the stress levels in the source region exhibited a trend of “significant adjustment—steady variation—pre-earthquake enhancement.” The fault accumulated stress and entered a metastable state prior to the earthquake.