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<p>China’s pursuit of green transformation and digital modernization has reshaped the structural foundations of its economy, yet their combined implications for national economic resilience remain insufficiently understood. Although existing research often examines renewable energy, smart infrastructure, or digitalization independently, limited attention has been given to how these transitions interact in nonlinear ways to influence resilience under environmental constraints. This study addresses this gap by asking: How do green energy deployment, smart infrastructure investment, digital productivity transformation, public sustainability spending, and industrial structural upgrading jointly shape economic resilience in China? Using annual data from 1995 to 2023, we develop a unified analytical framework and apply Kernel Regularized Least Squares (KRLS) and Quantile-on-Quantile Regression (QQR) to capture nonlinear, heterogeneous, and distribution-specific relationships. Robustness checks, including the BDS nonlinearity test and descriptive distributional diagnostics, confirm that resilience dynamics cannot be explained through linear assumptions. The results reveal clear asymmetries. Industrial structural upgrading and sustainable public investment consistently strengthen resilience across most quantiles. In contrast, green energy deployment, smart infrastructure investment, and digital productivity transformation exhibit negative effects in lower quantiles, suggesting transitional inefficiencies, regional imbalances, and threshold-dependent outcomes when green and digital transitions advance unevenly. GDP maintains a modest but positive association with resilience. These findings highlight that resilience is not determined solely by technological progress or green capacity, but by the alignment, sequencing, and inclusiveness of structural reforms. Policy implications emphasize the need for coordinated regional strategies, balanced renewable integration, equitable digital expansion, and integrated infrastructure planning to ensure that green and digital transitions translate into long-term resilience gains.</p>

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Structural drivers of economic resilience under China’s green and digital transition

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月19日

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  • Shanshan Huang,
  • Jin Wang

摘要

China’s pursuit of green transformation and digital modernization has reshaped the structural foundations of its economy, yet their combined implications for national economic resilience remain insufficiently understood. Although existing research often examines renewable energy, smart infrastructure, or digitalization independently, limited attention has been given to how these transitions interact in nonlinear ways to influence resilience under environmental constraints. This study addresses this gap by asking: How do green energy deployment, smart infrastructure investment, digital productivity transformation, public sustainability spending, and industrial structural upgrading jointly shape economic resilience in China? Using annual data from 1995 to 2023, we develop a unified analytical framework and apply Kernel Regularized Least Squares (KRLS) and Quantile-on-Quantile Regression (QQR) to capture nonlinear, heterogeneous, and distribution-specific relationships. Robustness checks, including the BDS nonlinearity test and descriptive distributional diagnostics, confirm that resilience dynamics cannot be explained through linear assumptions. The results reveal clear asymmetries. Industrial structural upgrading and sustainable public investment consistently strengthen resilience across most quantiles. In contrast, green energy deployment, smart infrastructure investment, and digital productivity transformation exhibit negative effects in lower quantiles, suggesting transitional inefficiencies, regional imbalances, and threshold-dependent outcomes when green and digital transitions advance unevenly. GDP maintains a modest but positive association with resilience. These findings highlight that resilience is not determined solely by technological progress or green capacity, but by the alignment, sequencing, and inclusiveness of structural reforms. Policy implications emphasize the need for coordinated regional strategies, balanced renewable integration, equitable digital expansion, and integrated infrastructure planning to ensure that green and digital transitions translate into long-term resilience gains.