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<p>The effective prevention of sexual recidivism is of high societal importance given the potential harm to victims. In collaboration with other stakeholders, police-led prevention approaches, such as the Berlin Sexual Offender Prevention of Recidivism through Interventions and Investigations (<i>Sexualstraftäter Prävention bei Rückfallgefahr durch Eingriffsmaßnahmen und Ermittlungen</i>; SPREE), play a&#xa0;central role in the management of released sexual offenders under strict supervision&#xa0;of conduct. The SPREE program employs a&#xa0;classification system based on a&#xa0;combined risk assessment using the Static-99R, the Crime Scene Behavior Risk Score (CBR) and a&#xa0;typological offender classification model. Based on a&#xa0;sample of 271 SPREE participants, the derived risk profiles were compared with those from a&#xa0;previous unselected population of convicted sexual offenders used for the development of the classification system. Cox regression analyses were conducted to compare expected and observed recidivism rates over a&#xa0;5-year follow-up period. Additionally, the incremental validity of supervision violations as a&#xa0;dynamic risk factor was examined. As expected, SPREE participants showed a&#xa0;stronger representation in high-risk categories and offender classes characterized by repeated or severe offenses compared to the unselected population; however, the observed recidivism rates were notably lower than expected, particularly in the highest risk category of the combined risk assessment (27% vs.&#xa0;48%). The combined risk assessment demonstrated a&#xa0;valid predictive performance with a&#xa0;moderate effect size (C-index = 0.64) and identified recidivism more sensitively than the Static-99R alone. Incorporating supervision violations proved incrementally valid (C-index = 0.70).The findings suggest that the interventions are particularly effective in reducing recidivism among high-risk offenders. Despite the reduced recidivism rate, the classification system remains prognostically valid, with risk management potentially improved through immediate and appropriate responses to supervision violations. Future research should examine the effectiveness of targeted prevention approaches for released sexual offenders more specifically, including the use of control group designs.</p>

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Risikoklassifikation und Rückfälligkeit von Sexualstraftätern unter Führungsaufsicht und im Programm der Zentralstelle SPREE des LKA Berlin

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  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月18日

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  • Jürgen Biedermann,
  • Dahlnym Yoon,
  • Sabine Misch,
  • Gregor Stresow

摘要

The effective prevention of sexual recidivism is of high societal importance given the potential harm to victims. In collaboration with other stakeholders, police-led prevention approaches, such as the Berlin Sexual Offender Prevention of Recidivism through Interventions and Investigations (Sexualstraftäter Prävention bei Rückfallgefahr durch Eingriffsmaßnahmen und Ermittlungen; SPREE), play a central role in the management of released sexual offenders under strict supervision of conduct. The SPREE program employs a classification system based on a combined risk assessment using the Static-99R, the Crime Scene Behavior Risk Score (CBR) and a typological offender classification model. Based on a sample of 271 SPREE participants, the derived risk profiles were compared with those from a previous unselected population of convicted sexual offenders used for the development of the classification system. Cox regression analyses were conducted to compare expected and observed recidivism rates over a 5-year follow-up period. Additionally, the incremental validity of supervision violations as a dynamic risk factor was examined. As expected, SPREE participants showed a stronger representation in high-risk categories and offender classes characterized by repeated or severe offenses compared to the unselected population; however, the observed recidivism rates were notably lower than expected, particularly in the highest risk category of the combined risk assessment (27% vs. 48%). The combined risk assessment demonstrated a valid predictive performance with a moderate effect size (C-index = 0.64) and identified recidivism more sensitively than the Static-99R alone. Incorporating supervision violations proved incrementally valid (C-index = 0.70).The findings suggest that the interventions are particularly effective in reducing recidivism among high-risk offenders. Despite the reduced recidivism rate, the classification system remains prognostically valid, with risk management potentially improved through immediate and appropriate responses to supervision violations. Future research should examine the effectiveness of targeted prevention approaches for released sexual offenders more specifically, including the use of control group designs.