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<p>For the application of the risk assessment instruments HCR-20&#xa0;v3 (+FAM) and LSI‑R on the release of women from forensic psychiatric institutions, there are currently no reliable studies available to estimate predictive performance.</p><p>In a&#xa0;retrospective file analysis, the data of 557 female forensic psychiatric patients were examined. Sociodemographic, clinical and legal prognostic information was recorded and the patient’s risk of recidivism was assessed using the HCR-20&#xa0;v3 (+FAM) and LSI‑R assessment instruments. To capture violent recidivism after release from forensic psychiatric care, extracts from the Federal Central Register were obtained.</p><p>The results indicate that the application of the HCR-20&#xa0;v3 (+FAM) and LSI‑R can be recommended for patients committed in accordance with Section&#xa0;63 of the German Criminal Code (Harrell’s C<sub>HCR-20&#xa0;v3</sub> = 0.777; Harrell’s C<sub>HCR-20&#xa0;v3</sub> <sub>+</sub> <sub>FAM</sub> = 0.770; Harrell’s <sub>CLSI‑R</sub> = 0.800), as well as for patients committed in accordance with section 64 of the German Criminal Code (Harrell’s C<sub>HCR-20&#xa0;v3</sub> = 0.773; Harrell’s C<sub>HCR-20&#xa0;v3</sub> <sub>+</sub> <sub>FAM</sub> = 0.764; Harrell’s C<sub>LSI‑R</sub> = 0.780), as the instruments demonstrated good predictive accuracy for both groups.</p><p>The slightly lower predictive accuracy for women committed under Section&#xa0;63 could be attributed to the smaller sample size or the nature of the disorder. The application of the FAM did not improve the predictive validity of HCR-20&#xa0;v3. This suggests that gender-specific adjustments in forensic commitment are not necessary as the predictive accuracy depends more on general criminogenic factors, which are already covered by the HCR-20&#xa0;v3. The strengths of the study lie in the large sample size and the long observation period of an average of 5.89 years, whereas the retrospective data collection represents a&#xa0;limitation.</p>

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Die Vorhersage von Gewaltdelikten anhand der Prognoseinstrumente HCR-20 v3 (+FAM) und LSI-R bei im Maßregelvollzug untergebrachten Frauen

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月14日

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  • Judith Streb,
  • Irina Franke,
  • Ivonne Steiner,
  • Juliane Mayer,
  • Viviane Wolf,
  • Verena Klein,
  • Manuela Dudeck

摘要

For the application of the risk assessment instruments HCR-20 v3 (+FAM) and LSI‑R on the release of women from forensic psychiatric institutions, there are currently no reliable studies available to estimate predictive performance.

In a retrospective file analysis, the data of 557 female forensic psychiatric patients were examined. Sociodemographic, clinical and legal prognostic information was recorded and the patient’s risk of recidivism was assessed using the HCR-20 v3 (+FAM) and LSI‑R assessment instruments. To capture violent recidivism after release from forensic psychiatric care, extracts from the Federal Central Register were obtained.

The results indicate that the application of the HCR-20 v3 (+FAM) and LSI‑R can be recommended for patients committed in accordance with Section 63 of the German Criminal Code (Harrell’s CHCR-20 v3 = 0.777; Harrell’s CHCR-20 v3 + FAM = 0.770; Harrell’s CLSI‑R = 0.800), as well as for patients committed in accordance with section 64 of the German Criminal Code (Harrell’s CHCR-20 v3 = 0.773; Harrell’s CHCR-20 v3 + FAM = 0.764; Harrell’s CLSI‑R = 0.780), as the instruments demonstrated good predictive accuracy for both groups.

The slightly lower predictive accuracy for women committed under Section 63 could be attributed to the smaller sample size or the nature of the disorder. The application of the FAM did not improve the predictive validity of HCR-20 v3. This suggests that gender-specific adjustments in forensic commitment are not necessary as the predictive accuracy depends more on general criminogenic factors, which are already covered by the HCR-20 v3. The strengths of the study lie in the large sample size and the long observation period of an average of 5.89 years, whereas the retrospective data collection represents a limitation.