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<p>The fall armyworm (FAW), <i>Spodoptera frugiperda</i>, is a highly destructive and invasive polyphagous pest that originated in tropical America and has rapidly spread to several regions across the globe. In this study FAW rearing experiments were conducted under five constant-temperature conditions (15 – 35&#xa0;°C) to construct a temperature-based phenology model. Nonlinear mathematical equations of biological significance were applied to describe temperature-dependent life processes, and the precision and reliability of the model were validated using stochastic simulations along with real-time daily temperature data from different regions of India. The lower developmental thresholds for egg, larva, and pupa were estimated at 11.25&#xa0;°C, 13.89&#xa0;°C, and 12.06&#xa0;°C, respectively, while their degree-day requirements were 64.5, 208.3, and 101.8. Application of the Sharpe–De Michele model revealed the upper developmental thresholds as 41.2&#xa0;°C (egg), 44.6&#xa0;°C (larva), and 34.7&#xa0;°C (pupa), derived from temperature-dependent development rates. Stochastic modeling of life table parameters indicated that FAW development, survival, and reproduction are most favorable at 25 – 32&#xa0;°C. These findings are critical for understanding FAW seasonal dynamics, particularly moth emergence, oviposition, egg hatching, and larval activity. The developed phenology model provides valuable insights for pest management by predicting key developmental events and can guide the timing of monitoring efforts using pheromone traps, the release of biocontrol agents, and the judicious application of insecticides. This approach strengthens integrated pest management strategies and supports sustainable control of FAW under diverse agro-climatic conditions.</p>

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Simulation of the temperature-dependent developmental response of the invasive fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda via phenology modeling

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月17日

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  • Jatin Kakara,
  • Babasaheb Fand,
  • Sathish Kota,
  • Tomar Satya Prakash Singh,
  • Jagdish Jaba

摘要

The fall armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda, is a highly destructive and invasive polyphagous pest that originated in tropical America and has rapidly spread to several regions across the globe. In this study FAW rearing experiments were conducted under five constant-temperature conditions (15 – 35 °C) to construct a temperature-based phenology model. Nonlinear mathematical equations of biological significance were applied to describe temperature-dependent life processes, and the precision and reliability of the model were validated using stochastic simulations along with real-time daily temperature data from different regions of India. The lower developmental thresholds for egg, larva, and pupa were estimated at 11.25 °C, 13.89 °C, and 12.06 °C, respectively, while their degree-day requirements were 64.5, 208.3, and 101.8. Application of the Sharpe–De Michele model revealed the upper developmental thresholds as 41.2 °C (egg), 44.6 °C (larva), and 34.7 °C (pupa), derived from temperature-dependent development rates. Stochastic modeling of life table parameters indicated that FAW development, survival, and reproduction are most favorable at 25 – 32 °C. These findings are critical for understanding FAW seasonal dynamics, particularly moth emergence, oviposition, egg hatching, and larval activity. The developed phenology model provides valuable insights for pest management by predicting key developmental events and can guide the timing of monitoring efforts using pheromone traps, the release of biocontrol agents, and the judicious application of insecticides. This approach strengthens integrated pest management strategies and supports sustainable control of FAW under diverse agro-climatic conditions.