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Specifications tests for count time series models with covariates

  • Šárka Hudecová,
  • Marie Hušková,
  • Simos G. Meintanis

摘要

We propose a goodness-of-fit test for a class of count time series models with covariates which includes the Poisson autoregressive model with covariates (PARX) as a special case. The test criteria are derived from a specific characterization for the conditional probability generating function, and the test statistic is formulated as a \(L_2\) L 2 weighting norm of the corresponding sample counterpart. The asymptotic properties of the proposed test statistic are provided under the null hypothesis as well as under specific alternatives. A bootstrap version of the test is explored in a Monte–Carlo study and illustrated on a real data set on road safety.