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<p>Price promotions are the “go-to” marketing action for boosting sales. The same-week sales “bump” is the gold standard metric for evaluating the tactic. This study examines what drives the size of the bump. We analyze 589 consumer packaged goods brands over 15 years, drawing on utility theory to generate seven fundamental drivers and develop hypotheses. We show that for the average brand, discount depth and feature advertising increase the bump; yet, competitor price promotions, new products, and loyalty decrease it. SKU proliferation and advertising have no effect, on average. Differences in driver impact are substantial. For example, a standard deviation increase in promotional discount depth increases the bump by 18.0%, while a standard deviation increase in new product development <i>decreases</i> the bump by -12.9%. We show that jointly examining a comprehensive set of drivers is important—focusing just on a few can conflate their inferred impact with that of unexamined drivers. We illustrate how brand managers can use our results in response to competitor promotion activity. Overall, we generate substantive, conceptual, and managerial insights by undertaking a uniquely comprehensive, theory-driven study of what drives the size of the promotion bump.</p>

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The size of the same-week promotion bump—Drivers and their implications

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月30日

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  • Anthony Koschmann,
  • Scott A. Neslin,
  • Shuba Srinivasan,
  • Paul Wolfson

摘要

Price promotions are the “go-to” marketing action for boosting sales. The same-week sales “bump” is the gold standard metric for evaluating the tactic. This study examines what drives the size of the bump. We analyze 589 consumer packaged goods brands over 15 years, drawing on utility theory to generate seven fundamental drivers and develop hypotheses. We show that for the average brand, discount depth and feature advertising increase the bump; yet, competitor price promotions, new products, and loyalty decrease it. SKU proliferation and advertising have no effect, on average. Differences in driver impact are substantial. For example, a standard deviation increase in promotional discount depth increases the bump by 18.0%, while a standard deviation increase in new product development decreases the bump by -12.9%. We show that jointly examining a comprehensive set of drivers is important—focusing just on a few can conflate their inferred impact with that of unexamined drivers. We illustrate how brand managers can use our results in response to competitor promotion activity. Overall, we generate substantive, conceptual, and managerial insights by undertaking a uniquely comprehensive, theory-driven study of what drives the size of the promotion bump.