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<p>The aim of this study was to translate, culturally adapt, and validate the Acutely Presenting Older Patient (APOP) screener into Spanish for use among Mexican patients attending the emergency department, in order to predict the risk of 90-day mortality. Patients aged 70&#xa0;years and older who received emergency care at a private hospital in Mexico City were included. The APOP scale underwent translation, cultural adaptation, and expert validation in accordance with standardized guidelines. For each patient, vulnerability risk was calculated, and a 90-day follow-up was conducted to assess mortality. A total of 317 patients were recruited, and 206 (65%) completed the 90-day follow-up. The culturally adapted Spanish version of the APOP scale was successfully validated by experts. A high-vulnerability score (≥ 46 points) predicted 90-day mortality with a sensitivity of 51.6% and a specificity of 85.1%, with an area under the curve of 0.74 (95% confidence interval: 0.71–0.77). The APOP scale effectively identifies vulnerable older adults in the emergency department. Its high specificity allows clinicians to recognize patients unlikely to require extensive evaluation, improving resource allocation and streamlining care in the time-sensitive emergency setting.</p>

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Mortality prediction using a geriatric vulnerability scale in the emergency department of a private hospital in Mexico City

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月14日

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  • Roberto Badir Coránguez-Capistrán,
  • Alejandro Rodrigo Octavio Guzmán-Herrera,
  • Abel Lerma,
  • Betzabeé Torres-Munguía,
  • Raúl Zertuche-Calvillo,
  • Adrián Ceballos-Bocanegra,
  • Claudia Lerma

摘要

The aim of this study was to translate, culturally adapt, and validate the Acutely Presenting Older Patient (APOP) screener into Spanish for use among Mexican patients attending the emergency department, in order to predict the risk of 90-day mortality. Patients aged 70 years and older who received emergency care at a private hospital in Mexico City were included. The APOP scale underwent translation, cultural adaptation, and expert validation in accordance with standardized guidelines. For each patient, vulnerability risk was calculated, and a 90-day follow-up was conducted to assess mortality. A total of 317 patients were recruited, and 206 (65%) completed the 90-day follow-up. The culturally adapted Spanish version of the APOP scale was successfully validated by experts. A high-vulnerability score (≥ 46 points) predicted 90-day mortality with a sensitivity of 51.6% and a specificity of 85.1%, with an area under the curve of 0.74 (95% confidence interval: 0.71–0.77). The APOP scale effectively identifies vulnerable older adults in the emergency department. Its high specificity allows clinicians to recognize patients unlikely to require extensive evaluation, improving resource allocation and streamlining care in the time-sensitive emergency setting.