<p>Pipe curtains are widely employed in underground engineering as support structures to control stratum deformation during excavation. However, a comprehensive theoretical model for accurately predicting pipe curtain deformation remains lacking. This study establishes a deformation prediction model for pipe curtains based on the small-deflection elastic plate theory, incorporating the actual stress characteristics of pipe curtains and the effects of overlying loads. The calculation method for the bending stiffness of pipe curtains under various arrangements is derived. Using in situ monitoring data from the Pinganli Station and the Shifu Station, the model’s effectiveness is validated. Furthermore, the influence of key parameters on pipe curtain deformation under different arrangements is systematically analyzed. The results show that the proposed calculation methods achieve satisfactory accuracy for both transverse and longitudinal arrangements, with average errors of 0.9% and 19.8%, respectively, making them suitable for practical engineering applications. In addition, the transverse arrangement effectively reduces the deformation of pipe curtains induced by excavation. Among all factors, the excavation span exerts the most significant influence on pipe curtain deformation. Specifically, the maximum deformation decreases exponentially with increasing steel pipe diameter, decreases linearly with the stiffness of the grouting body between pipes, and increases exponentially with the excavation span.</p>