Railroads, fertility and the demographic transition in England and Wales

This paper explores the transformative impact of railways on fertility in industrializing England and Wales. Using panel data with fixed effects and time-varying controls (N = 2,110), I find that at the local level fertility is around 3% higher in places that are connected to the railroad network than in unconnected units. To address endogeneity, I use an instrumental variable based on a network of least-cost paths. Results are robust to a range of specifications, including models in levels, differences, Coarsened Exact Matching estimation, Conley standard errors, and a range of placebo tests based on alternative means of transport.