Predicting Inadequate Weight Loss After Bariatric Surgery: Derivation and Validation of a Four Factor Model

Weight loss following bariatric surgery is variable and predicting inadequate weight loss is required to help select patients for bariatric surgery. The aim of the present study was to determine variables associated with inadequate weight loss and to derive and validate a predictive model.

All patients who underwent laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy and Roux-en-Y gastrectomy (2008–2022) in a tertiary referral centre were followed up prospectively. Inadequate weight loss was defined as excess weight loss (EWL) < 50% by 24 months. A top-down approach was performed using multivariate logistic regression and then internally validated using bootstrapping. Patients were categorised into risk groups.

A total of 280 patients (median age, 49 years; M:F, 69:211) were included (146 LSG; 134 LRYGB). At 24 months, the median total weight loss was 30.9% and 80.0% achieved EWL ≥ 50% by 24 months. Variables associated with inadequate weight loss were T2DM (OR 2.42; p = 0.042), age 51–60 (OR 1.93, p = 0.006), age > 60 (OR 4.93, p < 0.001), starting BMI > 50 kg/m² (OR 1.93, p = 0.037) and pre-operative weight loss (OR 3.51; p = 0.036). The validation C-index was 0.75 (slope = 0.89). Low, medium and high-risk groups had a 4.9%, 16.7% and 44.6% risk of inadequate weight loss, respectively.

Inadequate weight loss can be predicted using a four factor model which could help patients and clinicians in decision-making for bariatric surgery.