Understanding how the radial growth of major conifer species responds to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau is increasingly important. However, relevant studies in the middle of the Hengduan Mountains, eastern Tibetan Plateau have not been carried out. In this study, increment cores of Abies georgei, Picea likiangensis and Larix potaninii at the treeline (4260 m), and those of Pinus densata (3730 m), A. georgei (3560 m, 3330 m) and P. likiangensis (3560 m) from subalpine stands, were sampled. Radial growth responses of these conifers to climate change were analysed via dendroecological methods, and the impacts of climatic factors were investigated via partial least squares path modelling (PLS-PM) during the period 1952‒2023. Our results reveal that a rapid warming occurred after 1988, dividing the study period into two intervals: 1952‒1987 and 1988‒2023. A. georgei at the treeline showed improved growth whereas P. densata at the 3730 m site showed reduced growth during 1988‒2023. At the treeline, radial growth of the three conifers were significantly positively correlated with precipitation and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in May/June, and A. georgei and P. likiangensis was negatively correlated with Tmax and Ped in May during 1988‒2023. Radial growth of P. likiangensis was negatively correlated with Tmax in the previous December during the same period. In the subalpine stands, tree ring chronologies of A. georgei at the 3560 and 3330 m sites, and P. densata at the 3730 m site were significantly positively correlated with May precipitation, P. likiangensis at the 3560 m site had significantly negative correlations with Tmax, Tmean, and Ped of the previous October over the period 1988‒2023. According to PLS-PM results, the warming-induced promotion of radial growth for A. georgei at the treeline was greater than the suppression by warming-induced drought. In contrast, warming had no significant effect on the radial growth of L. potaninii at the treeline and P. likiangensis at the 3560 m site. Early growing season drought caused by climate warming is the primary factor limiting the radial growth of subalpine conifers, and continued warming is expected to impact carbon sequestration and community composition in the Hengduan Mountains.

Radial growth response of conifers to rapid warming in the Hengduan Mountains in southwestern China

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发表日期：

2025年12月27日

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Jingxuan Wei,
Mingming Guo,
Yuandong Zhang,
Kun Xu,
Qingao Lu,
Shirong Liu

摘要

Understanding how the radial growth of major conifer species responds to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau is increasingly important. However, relevant studies in the middle of the Hengduan Mountains, eastern Tibetan Plateau have not been carried out. In this study, increment cores of Abies georgei, Picea likiangensis and Larix potaninii at the treeline (4260 m), and those of Pinus densata (3730 m), A. georgei (3560 m, 3330 m) and P. likiangensis (3560 m) from subalpine stands, were sampled. Radial growth responses of these conifers to climate change were analysed via dendroecological methods, and the impacts of climatic factors were investigated via partial least squares path modelling (PLS-PM) during the period 1952‒2023. Our results reveal that a rapid warming occurred after 1988, dividing the study period into two intervals: 1952‒1987 and 1988‒2023. A. georgei at the treeline showed improved growth whereas P. densata at the 3730 m site showed reduced growth during 1988‒2023. At the treeline, radial growth of the three conifers were significantly positively correlated with precipitation and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in May/June, and A. georgei and P. likiangensis was negatively correlated with Tmax and Ped in May during 1988‒2023. Radial growth of P. likiangensis was negatively correlated with Tmax in the previous December during the same period. In the subalpine stands, tree ring chronologies of A. georgei at the 3560 and 3330 m sites, and P. densata at the 3730 m site were significantly positively correlated with May precipitation, P. likiangensis at the 3560 m site had significantly negative correlations with Tmax, Tmean, and Ped of the previous October over the period 1988‒2023. According to PLS-PM results, the warming-induced promotion of radial growth for A. georgei at the treeline was greater than the suppression by warming-induced drought. In contrast, warming had no significant effect on the radial growth of L. potaninii at the treeline and P. likiangensis at the 3560 m site. Early growing season drought caused by climate warming is the primary factor limiting the radial growth of subalpine conifers, and continued warming is expected to impact carbon sequestration and community composition in the Hengduan Mountains.