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<p>Soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks within the active layer of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) permafrost are highly sensitive to climate change. This study employs a data-driven approach to map interannual variations in active layer thickness (ALT) and SOC density across the TP permafrost from 2016 to 2023, addressing limitations of previous static assessments. Using equal-area quadratic smoothing splines for pixel-level SOC estimation, we achieved precise stock calculations and substantially reduced uncertainties. Compared to the 2006–2015 baseline, the average ALT increased by approximately 2 cm during 2016–2023, with pronounced warming-driven deepening from 2019 to 2023 (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05). SOC stocks in the active layer also increased significantly over 2019–2023. Dynamic analyses indicate that carbon stored at 6–10 m depth may be released even when ALT remains below 6 m. Overall, the TP permafrost experienced a net loss of 0.49 Pg SOC at an average rate of 0.07 Pg yr<sup>−1</sup>, with accelerated carbon release observed in the Qiangtang Plateau under warming and drying conditions. These results enhance understanding of SOC dynamics, the interaction between ALT and SOC, and carbon–climate feedback mechanisms in the TP permafrost region.</p>

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Interannual active-layer soil organic carbon dynamics and climate responses on the Tibetan Plateau (2016–2023)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月4日

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  • Xin Zhang,
  • Jianrong Fan

摘要

Soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks within the active layer of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) permafrost are highly sensitive to climate change. This study employs a data-driven approach to map interannual variations in active layer thickness (ALT) and SOC density across the TP permafrost from 2016 to 2023, addressing limitations of previous static assessments. Using equal-area quadratic smoothing splines for pixel-level SOC estimation, we achieved precise stock calculations and substantially reduced uncertainties. Compared to the 2006–2015 baseline, the average ALT increased by approximately 2 cm during 2016–2023, with pronounced warming-driven deepening from 2019 to 2023 (p < 0.05). SOC stocks in the active layer also increased significantly over 2019–2023. Dynamic analyses indicate that carbon stored at 6–10 m depth may be released even when ALT remains below 6 m. Overall, the TP permafrost experienced a net loss of 0.49 Pg SOC at an average rate of 0.07 Pg yr−1, with accelerated carbon release observed in the Qiangtang Plateau under warming and drying conditions. These results enhance understanding of SOC dynamics, the interaction between ALT and SOC, and carbon–climate feedback mechanisms in the TP permafrost region.