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<p>Climate change and intensified anthropogenic activities have amplified the occurrence of compound extremes, profoundly reshaping the spatial distribution of population exposure. However, how population exposure differs between compound hot-drought events (CHDEs) and compound hot-wet events (CHWEs) and what drives their divergence at the basin scale remain poorly quantified, particularly in highly urbanization basins. In the Pearl River Basin (PRB), a rapidly urbanizing and densely populated region in southern China, previous studies have largely examined individual extreme types or focused on single-event exposure, leaving a critical gap in comparative assessments of population exposure to CHDEs and CHWEs and their underlying drivers. Here, we conducted a basin-wide comparative analysis of CHDEs and CHWEs in the PRB during 2000–2022 using 1-km gridded topographic, socioeconomic, population, and climate datasets. We characterized the spatiotemporal dynamics of frequency, duration and intensity of these two compound extremes and quantify their exposure dynamics. Furthermore, an interpretable machine learning approach (XGBoost combined with SHAP values) was employed to disentangle the relative contribution of climatic, topographic, and socio-economic drivers to the trends of inter-event exposure differences. Results reveal that CHDEs were more frequent, intense and persistent than CHWEs. CHWEs exhibited rising frequency and duration but decreasing severity. Population exposure to CHDEs intensified in urban areas but decreased in rural areas; while exposure to CHWEs increased significantly in both regions. Urban expansion rate (ΔISP) and intensity (ΔISPI) emerged as dominant drivers of the observed exposure disparities, with additional contributions from gross domestic product (GDP), topography (DEM) and human develop footprint (HDF) substantially contributed to these exposure differences. These findings emphasize the urgent need to integrate compound climate risks into resilience-oriented urban planning and sustainable development strategies.</p>

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Comparative population exposure to compound hot–dry vs. hot–wet extremes in the rapidly urbanizing Pearl River Basin: drivers and implications

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月29日

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  • Jing Zhang,
  • Liyan Huang,
  • Jialong Sun,
  • Haibo Liu,
  • Min Zhang,
  • Zilong Jiang

摘要

Climate change and intensified anthropogenic activities have amplified the occurrence of compound extremes, profoundly reshaping the spatial distribution of population exposure. However, how population exposure differs between compound hot-drought events (CHDEs) and compound hot-wet events (CHWEs) and what drives their divergence at the basin scale remain poorly quantified, particularly in highly urbanization basins. In the Pearl River Basin (PRB), a rapidly urbanizing and densely populated region in southern China, previous studies have largely examined individual extreme types or focused on single-event exposure, leaving a critical gap in comparative assessments of population exposure to CHDEs and CHWEs and their underlying drivers. Here, we conducted a basin-wide comparative analysis of CHDEs and CHWEs in the PRB during 2000–2022 using 1-km gridded topographic, socioeconomic, population, and climate datasets. We characterized the spatiotemporal dynamics of frequency, duration and intensity of these two compound extremes and quantify their exposure dynamics. Furthermore, an interpretable machine learning approach (XGBoost combined with SHAP values) was employed to disentangle the relative contribution of climatic, topographic, and socio-economic drivers to the trends of inter-event exposure differences. Results reveal that CHDEs were more frequent, intense and persistent than CHWEs. CHWEs exhibited rising frequency and duration but decreasing severity. Population exposure to CHDEs intensified in urban areas but decreased in rural areas; while exposure to CHWEs increased significantly in both regions. Urban expansion rate (ΔISP) and intensity (ΔISPI) emerged as dominant drivers of the observed exposure disparities, with additional contributions from gross domestic product (GDP), topography (DEM) and human develop footprint (HDF) substantially contributed to these exposure differences. These findings emphasize the urgent need to integrate compound climate risks into resilience-oriented urban planning and sustainable development strategies.