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<p>The alpine grassland ecosystems of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are highly susceptible to external disturbances, particularly climate change, owing to their fragile ecological structure and unstable environmental processes. These grasslands are broadly classified into alpine meadow and alpine steppe, yet studies examine their successional dynamics at small-to-medium scales using remote sensing remain scarce. This study investigates the transitional zone between alpine meadow and alpine steppe in the hinterland of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, utilizing Landsat TM/OLI imagery and derived spectral indices from 1986 and 2019, together with long-term meteorological records (1986–2019). The aim is to elucidate the spatial patterns and hydrothermal driving mechanisms underlying grassland succession. Jeffries–Matusita distance analysis revealed that combining Landsat TM/OLI bands with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Water Index (LSWI) substantially improved the separability between the two grassland types. Over the study period, the centroid of the alpine steppe shifted southwestward at a rate of 8 km per decade, driven by the conversion of alpine meadow to alpine steppe in southern areas and the opposing transition in northern areas. Trend analysis of meteorological data indicates that declining surface moisture, induced by climate warming, is the primary driver of meadow-to-steppe conversion. Although the use of two temporal snapshots limits the characterization of interannual variability, the observed net shift remains consistently associated with this drying trend. This study underscores the diagnostic value of surface environmental indicators in distinguishing alpine meadow and alpine steppe, and highlights climate change as the dominant force shaping regional grassland succession. As a climatically sensitive ecotone, this area serves as an early-warning indicator that similar climate-driven vegetation transformations may be underway across broader alpine zones of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.</p>

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Climate-driven succession of alpine meadow and steppe in the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (1986–2019)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月29日

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  • Fei Ma,
  • Jingji Li,
  • Peihao Peng

摘要

The alpine grassland ecosystems of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are highly susceptible to external disturbances, particularly climate change, owing to their fragile ecological structure and unstable environmental processes. These grasslands are broadly classified into alpine meadow and alpine steppe, yet studies examine their successional dynamics at small-to-medium scales using remote sensing remain scarce. This study investigates the transitional zone between alpine meadow and alpine steppe in the hinterland of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, utilizing Landsat TM/OLI imagery and derived spectral indices from 1986 and 2019, together with long-term meteorological records (1986–2019). The aim is to elucidate the spatial patterns and hydrothermal driving mechanisms underlying grassland succession. Jeffries–Matusita distance analysis revealed that combining Landsat TM/OLI bands with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Water Index (LSWI) substantially improved the separability between the two grassland types. Over the study period, the centroid of the alpine steppe shifted southwestward at a rate of 8 km per decade, driven by the conversion of alpine meadow to alpine steppe in southern areas and the opposing transition in northern areas. Trend analysis of meteorological data indicates that declining surface moisture, induced by climate warming, is the primary driver of meadow-to-steppe conversion. Although the use of two temporal snapshots limits the characterization of interannual variability, the observed net shift remains consistently associated with this drying trend. This study underscores the diagnostic value of surface environmental indicators in distinguishing alpine meadow and alpine steppe, and highlights climate change as the dominant force shaping regional grassland succession. As a climatically sensitive ecotone, this area serves as an early-warning indicator that similar climate-driven vegetation transformations may be underway across broader alpine zones of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.