Scholarlink

<p>In recent decades, significant global warming has driven heterogeneous glacier thinning and retreat across High Mountain Asia (HMA), leading to the formation of new glacial lakes and the expansion of existing ones. These changes, along with their potential socio-economic impacts, have drawn growing attention from both the public and scientific communities. This study investigates glacial lake formation and expansion in the Hunza Valley, located in the western Karakoram, northern Pakistan—a region known for its high frequency of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) that pose recurrent threats to downstream communities, particularly along the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Using multi-temporal Landsat imagery from 1990 to 2021, we mapped and quantified changes in glacial lakes, revealing significant spatiotemporal variations in lake status within the Hunza Basin that amplify downstream GLOF hazards. Climatic trends were assessed using CHELSA and TPMFD datasets. Our results show a substantial increase in glacial lake extent: the number of lakes rose from 97 in 1990 to 169 in 2021 (a 74.2% increase), while the total lake area expanded from 0.91 km<sup>2</sup> to 1.7 km<sup>2</sup>. Mann–Kendall trend analysis indicates statistically significant warming during summer and early autumn, coinciding with peak glacier melt periods and thereby contributing to enhanced meltwater input and lake expansion. In 2021, a total of 20 lakes were classified as potentially dangerous glacial lakes (PDGLs), posing significant socio-economic risks to downstream communities and critical infrastructure, especially along the CPEC. These findings underscore the strong linkages among glacier retreat, climate warming, and glacial lake expansion, highlighting the urgent need for continuous monitoring and comprehensive risk assessment in high mountain environments.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Glacial lake expansion and outburst flood threat along the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor: Hunza Basin, Pakistan (1990–2021)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月29日

查看全文
  • Saddique Akbar,
  • Junbo Wang,
  • Atta Ullah,
  • Sher Muhammad

摘要

In recent decades, significant global warming has driven heterogeneous glacier thinning and retreat across High Mountain Asia (HMA), leading to the formation of new glacial lakes and the expansion of existing ones. These changes, along with their potential socio-economic impacts, have drawn growing attention from both the public and scientific communities. This study investigates glacial lake formation and expansion in the Hunza Valley, located in the western Karakoram, northern Pakistan—a region known for its high frequency of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) that pose recurrent threats to downstream communities, particularly along the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Using multi-temporal Landsat imagery from 1990 to 2021, we mapped and quantified changes in glacial lakes, revealing significant spatiotemporal variations in lake status within the Hunza Basin that amplify downstream GLOF hazards. Climatic trends were assessed using CHELSA and TPMFD datasets. Our results show a substantial increase in glacial lake extent: the number of lakes rose from 97 in 1990 to 169 in 2021 (a 74.2% increase), while the total lake area expanded from 0.91 km2 to 1.7 km2. Mann–Kendall trend analysis indicates statistically significant warming during summer and early autumn, coinciding with peak glacier melt periods and thereby contributing to enhanced meltwater input and lake expansion. In 2021, a total of 20 lakes were classified as potentially dangerous glacial lakes (PDGLs), posing significant socio-economic risks to downstream communities and critical infrastructure, especially along the CPEC. These findings underscore the strong linkages among glacier retreat, climate warming, and glacial lake expansion, highlighting the urgent need for continuous monitoring and comprehensive risk assessment in high mountain environments.